To read part 1 of this article, click here.
BROWNS THOUGHT #3: WE PREFER ANOTHER ROOKIE QB FROM THE SECOND TIER
Head coach Hue Jackson has a great deal of experience working with NFL quarterbacks. Referring to the previously mentioned list of 1st round quarterback selections, Hue has coached the good (Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco), the average (Jason Campbell), and the ugly (Patrick Ramsay and Joey Harrington). He is also hailed for raising the game of Bengals QB Andy Dalton, while putting back-up A.J. McCarron on the want list of other QB-starved NFL franchises.
With that experience, Hue must have a pretty good feel for what it takes to be successful on Sundays. Is it possible that he likes one of the second tier guys like Memphis’ Paxton Lynch or Michigan State’s Connor Cook? If so, he would either have to wait and hope he can get his man with the #32 pick, or be proactive and trade up (or down from #8) to a mid to late 1st round slot.
History shows banking on second tier guys in the later 1st round or early 2nd round is risky business. You can hit gold with Aaron Rodgers (#24) or Drew Brees (#32). Solid guys like Dalton (#35), Colin Kaepernick (#36), and Derek Carr (#36) are there. But there is a lot of mediocrity (Campbell at #25). Need any examples of misses? How about the Browns’ trio at the #22 spot: Johnny Manziel, Brandon Weeden, and Brady Quinn.
Likelihood that the Browns’ are thinking this way: 34%
Wisdom in this thinking: C- (I don’t think either Cook or Lynch is worth the risk of using a pick that high)
BROWNS THOUGHT #4: WE WANT TO GROOM A 3RD-TIER ROOKIE QB
Could they have their eye on Christian Hackenberg, who underperformed at Penn State? The steady Kevin Hogan of Stanford? Or how about OSU and hometown folk hero, Cardale Jones? This Cleveland native likely would have snuck into the first round if he came out for the draft last year after his 3-game explosion that led to a national championship. Personally, my preference from the C-list would be Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott.
There are a few examples of success of when picking a ‘down the liner’. Tom Brady (#199) is the ultimate Power Ball lottery ticket. Russell Wilson (#75) is the rarity that has risen near the elite status. The likely ideal though, is to find an average to solid player like Matt Schaub (#90), Kyle Orton (#106), or Kirk Cousins (#102). Probably, though, you are pick someone at the level of these familiar names: Seneca Wallace (#110) or Charlie Frye (#67).
Likelihood that the Browns’ are thinking this way: 72%
Wisdom in this thinking: B+
That grade is based is if they wait until at least the 3rd round. Picking any higher is a waste of a good draft slot. With plenty of down the road draft picks to burn, they should use one and see what Hue can get out of that choice. Let the youngster simmer for a few years in Hue Jackson’s crock pot. You just might end up with a juicy pot roast of a quarterback.
And drafting a project lessens the level of quarterback controversy when put into the mix with this next guy…
BROWNS THOUGHT #5: WE WILL TAKE OUR RISK WITH RG III
If the Browns want to address their desperate need of a franchise quarterback, they need to go to NFL casino and place a bet. Their options appear to be:
A. Put some serious collateral (in the form of a high draft pick) on the table in hopes of hitting black jack in a year where there are no sure QB bets.
B. Put some small change (a low draft pick) on a number of the roulette wheel and hope for a miracle.
C. Drive right on past that casino, pull into a junkyard, and spend a few bucks a broken down ’69 Camaro. With some mechanical know-how, a lot hard work, and a pinch of good luck, you just might end up with a sweet muscle car.
With Robert Griffin III, you are not trying to re-store a 1991 Chevy Cavalier. Just 4 years ago, he was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, setting a record for the highest rookie QB rating at 102.4. Unfortunately, he injured his knee at the end of the year, which carried into the next season. Then, in 2014, he missed about half a season due to a dislocated ankle. Still, his QB ratings were 82.2 and 86.9 those two years. By comparison, last year, Joe Flacco had an 83.1, and Jameis Winston scored an 84.2.
By 2015, RG III had clearly fallen out of favor with Washington head coach Jay Gruden, not playing a down the entire year. While that season-long ride on the bench took some serious glow out of his NFL stardom, it also allowed his body to fully heal.
Another positive is that Griffin just turned 26 years old on February 12. At that age, this guy was a still a college sophomore…
If that doesn’t make you feel better, consider that RG III is only about 4.5 years older than Wentz and Goff (who ironically shares his birthday with Weeden), is exactly 4 years older than Lynch (both born February 12), 3 years older than Cook, and 2.5 years older than Jones. The idea behind taking many of these rookie QBs is to let them wait and learn for a few seasons before giving them the keys to the offense (think Aaron Rodgers). Griffin is at that point right now.
Hopefully, his dismal 2015 experience has him hungry for redemption. The playing window can be brief for NFL players. I am guessing that Griffin recognizes the importance of this great opportunity to work with a QB mentor such as Hue Jackson.
And by trading out of the #2 spot, Cleveland avoided the quarterback controversy train wreck that surely would have come with drafting Goff or Wentz.
Likelihood that the Browns’ are thinking this way: 84%
Wisdom in this thinking: A- (The Browns are playing with house money on this bet).
BROWNS THOUGHT #6: WE ARE SMARTER THAN EVERYBODY ELSE.
This is the thought that I fear most. I wrote about the mistake of having this mentality when examining whether this new Browns’ front office regime can be trusted.
Thinking you are smarter than everybody else gets you to reach for a Weeden. It gets you to dismiss the red flags of Manziel. It gets you to overlook the alarming low weight of Barkevious Mingo. It gets you to trade out of the chance at Julio Jones because you are the smart one that will find the diamond in the rough later in the draft. You gloss over warnings about Justin Gilbert because you are smart enough to fix any problems.
So hopefully the Browns’ brain trust uses its analytics to get an edge on borderline decisions, not go over the edge with totally outside-the-box choices.
Here is what Hue Jackson said in a press conference following the trade.
“I told you guys before, I’m not like everybody else,” Jackson said. “Our organization’s not like everybody else. Everybody keeps saying about this player and that player. We go about doing our evaluation the way we do our evaluation. Okay? And that’s not slighting the quarterbacks or any position. What we feel is best for our organization is what we’ve done.”
While Browns’ fans hope for the best, history has all of us expecting the worst. Hopefully, Coach Jackson and Company can use their wisdom to get Cleveland turned in the right direction.