In today’s Times Reporter, an my article asked, Would a Penn State win be better for OSU?

No matter what happens with Penn State, the most important thing is that the Buckeyes take care of business against their arch rivals.

So how will THE GAME play out tomorrow?

For OSU, I am concerned about three things in particular:

1.  Their pass offense has greatly struggled at times, especially in stretching the field.  

They threw for a measly 86 yards in tough conditions at Michigan State last week.  Playing in front of the home crowd on sure-footed artificial turf should help.  But they are going  against the top-ranked defense in terms of passing yards given up per game (137.0) as well as total  yards given up per game (245.6).  J.T. Barrett and the Buckeye offense have their work cut out for themselves.

2.  Will the OSU run defense be able to consistently stop the Michigan pro-style power running game?  

OSU is ranked 4th nationally in total yards allowed per game (279.8), and 17th in rushing defense (120.3 yards per game).  Michigan churns out 235 yards per game rushing, which is tenth among Power-Five Conference schools.  The Silver Bullet defense has dominated for most of the year.  But last week in the 4th quarter, Michigan State drove 56 yards in eight plays for the potential game-tying TD (they failed in their 2-point conversion attempt).  All eight plays were L.J. Scott runs.  Scott finished the game with 19 carries for 160 yards, averaging a whopping 8.4 yards per carry.

This game will likely be a lower scoring  affair, and it may come down to which team can grind out more touchdown drives.   If the Ohio State offense sputters, can their defense carry their team for the entire game?

3.  Michigan is due for a win in this series.

Michigan has won only two of the last 15 match-ups.  The last was in 2011 over a 6-5 Buckeye team led by interim head coach Luke Fickell (after the ‘Tattoo-gate’ scandal).  You have to go back to 2003 for the next Wolverine win.

With Jim Harbaugh taking the reins of the U of M program, one would think that the rivalry should start to correct itself and even out.  Is this the year that the tide turns?

So here is my prediction…

Ohio State 20, Michigan 13

Why?  Here are my two keys…

1.  Michigan’s trouble at quarterback.

QB Wilton Speight went down with a shoulder injury two weeks ago in their loss to Iowa.  He may or may not play this Saturday.  Last week without him, Michigan threw for only 59 yards.  And against Iowa, Speight had only 103 yards passing while playing the entire game. They will have to do a lot better to score enough against this lethal OSU defense.

2.  Home-field advantage.

These teams are pretty evenly matched, so the home field might prove to be the decisive edge the Buckeyes need to get the win.  Both teams struggled offensively last week.  A struggling offense has a better chance to break out of its funk at home than on the road.

3.  OSU has owned this rivalry

I know that I mentioned above that Michigan is due for a win.  But until they get  that breakthrough win, there will be doubt lingering on the Michigan sideline and confidence beaming across the field with Ohio State.  I can sum it up this  way…

One team hopes to win, while the other expects to win.

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