Athletes nowadays are always looking to expand their celebrity powers well beyond the playing field.  For years, Payton Manning has been commercial gold, from plugging Papa John’s Pizza to etching the State Farm jingle into our brains (“Chicken parm you taste so good”).

Current NBA stars have created a sneaker flu epidemic in our schools.  Just about every teen male owns at least one pair of LeBrons, which come in more makes and models than the General Motors lineup.  In fact, while coaching a game this winter, I noticed that an opponent appeared to have splattered some paint on his $150 sneakers.  My players quickly informed me that the kid was wearing a pair of LeBron ‘Friday the 13ths’…

.

Other stars, such as Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, and Steph Curry, are also fighting for the feet of America’s future.  But to make you old-timers feel better, these classics are more popular than ever with the teeny-boppers…

Athletes have always looked to make some extra bucks through endorsements and other means.  But the idea of an athlete creating a brand for himself and becoming a multi-media star is a relatively new idea.  Michael Jordan established the this modern blueprint beginning in the mid-1980s, with his iconic shoe line, clothing, commercials (‘Be Like Mike”), and even movies (remember Space Jam?).

Prior to that, I can quickly think of only two jocks that became megastars beyond their sport.   The greatest of course, was ‘The Greatest’…

Is there any other jock that could co-headline a comic book with The Man of Steel?  Ali was all over the media.  I can even remember watching watching episodes of this Ali cartoon on Saturday mornings as a kid.

That other athlete I had in mind was a Heisman Trophy winner, an NFL Hall of Famer, and possibly the most  visually entertaining running back in NFL history ( Barry Sanders and Gale Sayers fans may disagree)…

Outside the gridiron, he became an iconic TV commercial pitchman…

A prominant sports broadcaster…

And was both a television and movie actor…

O.J. Simpson charmed the pants off American for almost three decades.

Then came the night of Sunday, June 12th, 1994.

I can faintly remember hearing getting the news the next morning about the brutal murder of O.J.’s ex-wife, Nicole Brown Simpson, along with her friend, Ron Goldman.  At first, I, along with much of America, didn’t initially consider O.J. to be part of this vicious crime.  But as more information came out during the week, a strong case against ‘The Juice’ was starting to appear.   Then came the infamous highway chase that gripped an entire nation…

I remember spending about four hours glued to the TV on that Friday night with friends and family, watching a little bit of the Knicks-Rockets NBA finals game and a lot of a slow white Ford Bronco driving through Los Angeles.

The cable network, FX, is in the midst of an 11-episode series entitled The People vs. O.J. Simpson:  American Crime Story.   Watching the first four episodes, it quickly brought me back to this unique cultural moment in history that seemed to mark an explosion of the 24-hour celebrity news cycle.  One could argue that all of the O.J. hoopla also provided the springboard to the growth of reality television that now dominates the airwaves.  Names long forgotten like Marcia Clark, Johnny Cochran, Mark Fuhrman, and Robert Shapiro quickly re-surfaced in my mind.

The acting performances have been tremendous.  John Travolta has been impressive portraying polished, yet mercurial original lead prosecutor Robert Shapiro…

(nydailynews .com)

Sarah Paulson nails the intensity and drive of Marcia Clark…

(variety .com)

And the intelligent, calming strength of star defense lawyer Johnny Cochran is fully embodied by actor Courtney B. Vance…

(time .com)

There are many other strong performances in the large cast of characters for years gone by.  My only complaint would be in the casting of O.J. Simpson himself…

(nydailynews .com)

Cuba Gooding  Jr. is a fine actor, but he doesn’t fill the enormous stature and presence of O.J.  And his high-pitched voice –think of his ‘Show me the money!’ in Jerry Maguire— doesn’t come close to matching the rich, power baritone of Simpson.

Like Titanic, this is a production where you know the stunning final outcome.  But the familiar journey includes many details that very few of us where aware of.  Nowadays, we carry worlds of information in our pocket.  1994 were the prehistoric days of big, clunky car phones, which the internet being an unexplored rumor to most.

I hav one personal memory about that trial verdict.  I can remember turning on my classroom TV to let my 8th grade math class see this historic cultural moment when the jury gave its decision.  What stunned me most was that many of my students not only thought O.J. was innocent, but that he was covering up for who they perceived was the real killer–O.J.’s son!

As any parent can attest, teenagers are definitely in their own, very different world!

The People vs. O.J. Simpson:  American Crime Story airs Tuesdays at 10 pm on FX.  There are moments of strong language.

Follow the author on twitter:  @macaljancic

To read An Autopsy on the NBC Part 1, click here.

Part 1 examined Louisville’s recent NBC dominance in football (21-0 record over the last three seasons with an average score of 46-12), as well as their their growing stranglehold over all sports in the conference (50% of all titles won since 2010).

That takes us back to the statement of Marlington Superintendent Joe Knoll, acting as spokesman for the seven schools withdrawing from the NBC…

“It is an issue over consideration of competitive balance and competitive equity at all levels in grades seven through 12.”

Louisville’s growing success has obviously led to a lack of competitive balance and equity within the NBC.  Two questions thus come to mind:

1.  How has Louisville gained such a competitive advantage?

2. Does this competitive inequity justify the abandonment of a long-time conference partner and neighbor?

Let’s first examine the issue of competitive advantage:

High schools can have an athletic advantage (fair or unfair) in a variety of ways…

One way is to bring in athletes from outside the district via recruitment and/or open enrollment.  Louisville does not really fall into this category.

Another way a school can gain an advantage is to be blessed  with an abundance of elite collegiate division-1 level athletes.  Louisville have  had three in the last 20 years:   Bobby Swigert (class of 2010, Boston College),  Joe Duckworth (2014, Ohio University), and Alex Hall (2016, Fordham).  Ironically, injuries ended Swigert’s senior season after week 4, while Duckworth missed half his junior year and his entire senior year.  So Louisville’s D1 athlete advantage is minimal at best.

The prime suspect in this investigation is student enrollment, where Louisville has always had an edge within the NBC.  Bigger schools have the advantage of having a larger pool of students from which to draw to fill their team rosters.  But every league has to have a biggest school.  The question is whether the NBC enrollment gap has grown such that has created in unfair advantage.

Here are the last five male enrollment totals gathered and used by the OHSAA to place schools in divisions.   (Note that the OHSAA counts the enrollments of grades 9-11 during the fall prior to the school year the count is being used for. Those enrollment totals are then used for a two-year cycle.  So this year’s 2015-16 school year enrollment totals for grades 10-12 are based on attendance in taken as of October 31, 2014 for grades 9-11.  And they likely count just three grades, instead of all four, because very few freshmen contribute at the varsity level.  You can find the enrollments on this OHSAA website)

While all school districts have declined in enrollment, the bottom schools–Minerva, Canton South, and West Branch–have pretty much had the biggest enrollment drops.  This next table gives of percent comparisons gives a better picture of how the composition of the NBC has changed since 2007:

Several data items stand out.  One is that Louisville’s enrollment gap over the smallest school increased from 39% to 55%. What amplifies this problem is that currently, the four smallest NBC schools are very similar in enrollment.  Thus Louisville is at least 48% bigger than half of the schools in the league.  In 2007, all but Minerva were within 30% of Louisville.

What also has hurt the NBC’s enrollment balance is the replacement of a bigger school in Northwest with a smaller school in Salem.  Not only was Northwest on par with Louisville on the gridiron, but they also were a perennial power in the other big revenue sport, boys’ basketball.

I addressed this growing enrollment divide in my NBC blog from last summer by proposing the creation of a two-division NBC by seeking to add Dover and New Philadelphia…

This set-up looks great on paper.  The enrollments are very balanced.  In the previously mentioned Alliance Review article from Part 1, Mike Brown wrote that the NBC explored this possibility, but could not get two schools interested in joining Louisville, Dover, and New Philadelphia in the upper division.  So that possible remedy never got off the ground.

The tangible enrollment data definitely points to a growing competitive advantage for Louisville. But I would speculate to say there is one other key aspect that has the enhanced Leopards’ competitive advantage within the NBC.   That would be the ability of the Louisville school system and community to develop bumper crops of athletes at young ages that eventually fill their high school rosters. 

I believe that many communities, not just locally, but across the state and country, are struggling to maintain their youth participation numbers in many sports.   I have several reasons for my theory:

1.  There are more sports options for children to participate in than in the past, which spreads the kids thinner among those choices.

2.  There are more non-sports options for children to participate in than in the past.

3.  Technology temptations—X-box, iPads, smart phones,…– keep more kids off the playing field and on their couches at home.

4.  More athletes specialize in just one sport at a younger age, especially due to the greater emphasis on playing on ‘travel’ teams, which increases both time and financial demands.

5.  Greater fears about the effects of concussions have influenced football participation.

Some communities, like Louisville, have withstood these detrimental factors better than others.  Their success in reaching and developing a good percentage of their elementary students provides them with a much larger number of athletes to draw from at the high school level.

This is especially true in football.  From sitting through my two sons’ Dover middle school football games for the last three seasons, I have noticed that many schools on the opposite sideline are struggling to get even 20 players on their teams.

Louisville, on the other hand, has used their in-house Little Leopard football program (over five decades old) for leagues in grades 5-6 as well as 7-8.   This past fall, they had 84 seventh and eighth graders filling four teams that play each other.  Those four teams add up to 88 starting positions available (11 each on offense and defense).  Most other schools have one team in both 7th and 8th grade, which provides only 44 starting spots.   Less starting spots mean fewer repetitions and playing time.  And fewer reps not only mean less development, but also less interest in staying in that sport.  Doubling the number of starting spots, on the other hand, also means doubling the number of touches of the football–runs, passes, and catches–that draws athletes to stay in the sport.

Some NBC schools have voiced their displeasure with this set-up, saying it provides the Leopard football program with an unfair advantage.  The numbers, both in participation and results, suggest that it is a definite advantage.  Louisville supporters would argue, tough, that there is nothing unfair about it.  They are just doing what they feel is best for their kids, and that any school can do their own version of an in-house league if they so desire.  And besides that, it saves the school system the tax dollar expense of running a middle school football program.

Another piece of evidence would be middle school boys’ basketball, which tends to be a good reflection of the depth of athletes within a class.  That’s because most better athletes at that age are playing a winter sport (either basketball or wrestling).  Over the last six years, Louisville’s 7th grade boys have won the NBC hoops title every year, accumulating a dominant record of 98-4.

These advantages, both factual (enrollment) as well as speculative (community influence), have brought this issue of ‘competitive balance and competitive equity’ to a boiling point within the league.  Prior to the messy ‘divorce’ proceeding of this current school year, some felt that Louisville needed to see the writing on the wall and take their big fish success to a bigger pond. Even many Leopard fans wondered if it was time to find a better competitive fit for their squads.

The obvious bigger pond in the neighborhood would be the Leopards’ former home, the Federal League.

Leopard fans wondered how they would measure up with the giants of Stark County.  The vibe among much of the rest of the NBC was it was time for Louisville to pick on someone their own size.  Let’s see how the enrollment numbers stack up between the two leagues…

Obviously, Louisville goes from the top of the food chain to the bottom.  The ‘See Ya Later, Louisville’ contingent would turn common Louisville argument against themselves.  That being the Leopards’ NBC dominance has been more a result of hard work and program development rather than enrollment discrepancies.   If those traits made Louisville the unchallenged King of the NBC, they should allow the Leopards to successfully compete in the ‘big leagues’.

Many, like me, however, recognize the effect of enrollment disparities in both leagues.  It has definitely aided Louisville in the NBC.  And I feel it would also make it extremely difficult for the Leopards to consistently compete in the Federal League.  The best way to illustrate this is to put both sides of the NBC debate into each other’s shoes.   Examining the enrollment percentage differences, the current situation for the smallest NBC schools would be comparable to this imaginary league for Louisville…

At first glance, Louisville fans would likely be excited to be in this imaginary league.  But as you consider it more, you could see that the Leopards would have absolutely no breathers on this schedule, and many enormous challenges to face.  When you have a great team, those challenging match-ups can be thrilling. But in those years when you have a mediocre or less roster of athletes, that daunting schedule would make for a very long year of losing.  It should give Louisville followers a better picture of the situation many NBC schools currently in.

Now let’s turn the tables and put the small trio of Minerva, West Branch, and Canton South into an imaginary league comparable to Louisville’s slot in the Federal League…

To call that schedule a terrifying gauntlet would be an huge understatement.  This comparison should give those NBC schools a better understanding why Louisville has not exactly been running towards the Federal League diving board.

Hopefully all of this paints a clearer portrait of both sides of this NBC debate.  Some feel that Louisville has been betrayed by their long-time conference brethren.  Others feel that Louisville has clearly outgrown the league, and those seven schools were forced to take action for their own sake.  Either way, I think most would agree that the  primary focus of all eight NBC schools is to look out for the best interests of their student-athletes.

Personally, I would love to see both sides come together and seek a compromise.   But in this situation, is there any common ground to build upon?  Putting on my best Henry Clay hat (look it up, non-historians), I would propose a two-year trial where Louisville would go independent in football while maintaining its NBC status in other sports.  Other NBC schools would have the option of playing the Leopards if they want.  This would start in the 2018-19 school year, since league scheduling contracts bind all schools until then.   To further ease tensions, Louisville could even offer the olive branch of allowing a couple of schools out of their 2017 football contract.  It is tough to fill a bunch of football vacancies within that time frame, but I would believe that filling two spots would be workable.

Could this compromise work?  I think many NBC schools would find this as an appealing alternative.  In his recent ‘Sunday Special’ article in The Canton Repository, long-time writer Todd Porter addressed the idea that some NBC football coaches value the opportunity to make their program better by playing Louisville each year.   And its likely that many NBC athletic budgets are going to miss the large ticket sale gate totals that Louisville brings in many sports.

Unfortunately, the recent announcement of their plans of departure by the seven NBC schools make the hopes of any compromise talks minimal at best.  The official ‘divorce’ appears to be simply waiting on the submission of paperwork formalities.  But for those eternal NBC optimists, you can always channel your inner Lloyd from Dumb and Dumber…

However the future of the NBC plays out, I challenge fans on both sides of this issue to do their best to take the high road.  Focus your energies on supporting your own school, as opposed to attacking your opposition.

Look for a uncoming blog exploring the possible ripple effects of this NBC break-up on surrounding area schools.

follow the author on twitter:  @macaljancic

Last summer, I did a series of blogs on the evolving state of area sports leagues.  Included in these articles was a data study of enrollments, travel times and performance.

Click here to read League Shuffling Part 1: The I.V.C. and the P.A.C. 7

Click here to read League Shuffling Part 2: Dover, New Phila, and the E.C.O.L.

Click here to read League Shuffling Part 3: Dover, New Phila, and the N.B.C.

Click here to read League Shuffling Part 4: A Two-Division Federal League?

Part 3 focused on the looming cloud that was hanging over the Northeastern Buckeye Conference at the time.  The concern among the league members  was that Louisville, the largest school in the league, was becoming  too dominant in football as well as most other sports (more on that later).

For the most part, this league had been very stable since it’s inception in 1989.  Six league members are charter members:  Canton South, Carrollton, Louisville, Marlington, Minerva, and West Branch.  Alliance joined in 2005, replacing Springfield (which replaced Dover in 1993).  Salem replaced Northwest in 2011.  (The Indians had to drop out because of a severe financial crisis for their district that affected sports scheduling).  The long-term stability of the league, as well as the close proximity of the schools, has created healthly, natural rivalries among most schools.   And 27 years of league continuity has developed many positive relationships among athletes, coaches, and fans.

This cloud of concern in the NBC grew darker this past autumn.  Mike Brown of the Alliance Review wrote an article that discussed the strong possibility of Salem and West Branch leaving the NBC to join the All-American Conference, based in the Youngstown area.

The possible departure of those two schools created the stress of an murky future for the rest of the NBC schools.  This uncertainty led to the start of meetings among seven of the NBC schools to discuss leaving the conference as a group to form a new league, thus leaving Louisville out in the cold. (NBC by-laws make it very difficult to vote out school members).

That dark cloud turned into a thunderstorm warning this past December when The Times Reporter‘s sister paper, The Repository, published a Joe Scalzo article with the headlines, NBC could disband to oust Louisville, which discussed those meetings and possible plans of those seven school members.

Speculation on the future of the NBC swirled over the next two months, until this past week when those seven schools officially released their plans to the media.  Scalzo’s Repository headline said it all:  Too much athletic success at Louisville; NBC will disband.

One statement in that article by Marlington superintendent and NBC spokesman Joe Knoll summed up the feelings of those seven schools:

“It is an issue over consideration of competitive balance and competitive equity at all levels in grades seven through 12.”

Let’s examine this issue of competitive balance and competitive equity from both sides of this quite turbulent argument.

Full disclosure:  I am a 1989 Louisville graduate and am have taught at Louisville Middle School for the last 21 years. 

The primary concern among the seven schools is Louisville’s success in comparison to the rest of the league.  The biggest red flag is on the gridiron.  Throughout the conference’s history, Louisville has won or shared 13 NBC titles.  West Branch is next with 7, then Minerva with 5, Northwest with 3, Marlington with 2, and Alliance, Carrollton, and  Springfield with 1.  Needless to say, Louisville has worn the cap of the New York Yankees when it comes to NBC football.

Louisville fans, as well as many other sports fans, would argue that there are benefits to having  Yankee-type team in any league.  It raises the bar of performance while also bringing positive attention to your conference.  Those baseball Yankees made the Red Sox, as well as the rest of Major League Baseball, elevate their play.  Michigan State’s recent success, not to mention Jim Harbaugh’s rebound at Michigan, is a direct result of trying to match Ohio State’s level of success.  The Southeastern Conference has become the gold standard of college football, in large part because Alabama’s great play has forced the rest of the schools to improve or become irrelevant.

The argument against this Yankee theory is that it greatly reduces the chances for success among smaller teams.  Current Cleveland Indians fans can relate to that.  And unlike professional and college sports, high schools can’t just go out and sign free agents or offer full tuition scholarships to acquire elite athletes.

Throughout NBC history, there were always at least one Red Sox team to counteract these Louisville ‘Yankees’.  Coach Rick Crislip had many strong Leopard squads in the 1990’s, but Jim Laut always had great West Branch teams of his own, including the state title winners in 1994.  At the same time, Lynn Molen built his own powerhouse at Minerva.  Dover had early success, and Springfield was a force as well in its early NBC years.

In the 2000s, Paul Farrah’s Louisville squads and Vic Whiting’s Northwest teams usually vied for the the title of top dog.  But NBC success spread well beyond those two heavyweights.  Ed Miley had Marlington in the play-offs three times between 2010-13, making it to the regional finals in 2010.  And the other schools had pockets of success as well.  In fact, from 2004-2012, seven different schools won at least a share of an NBC title.  Canton South was the only full time member from that period that did not, but those Wildcats did make the play-offs in 2006 and 2008.

And NBC schools carried their success outside of conference play.  Here’s a look at the NBC’s playoff performance since the conference began a run of play-off wins in 2001…

As you can see, the NBC had a great run of play-off success, which ended just about when Northwest left in 2011.  At about that time, Louisville began to transform from the powerful Yankees to a totally dominant Mount Union, in comparison to the rest of the NBC.  In the past three seasons, the Leopards have gone 21-0 in league play.  In 2013, Louisville won NBC games by an average score of 35-14.  In 2014, the 2nd half running clock rule was instituted when a team was ahead by 30 points or more.  Louisville’s average score that year was 50-14.  This past season, the average result was 42-10.

The overall average for these past three football seasons was 46-12. Louisville’s 24-21 win at Alliance in 2013 is the only game that where the margin was single digits.

One question to consider is how much of this competitive gap was caused by Louisville’s football program becoming better, and how much is due to NBC football showing some regression. Prior to 2015, the three years  of no play-off wins for the entire NBC lends credence to the thought that the quality of performance in NBC football had indeed dropped.  Play-off wins this year by Louisville and Salem, as well as a fine 7-3 season by a West Branch team that was ahead of the Leopards in the 4th quarter, made it look like NBC football was turning the corner.

Beyond the football field, Louisville’s dominance has extended into most other sports in recent years.   Here is a look at all of Louisville’s league titles throughout the history of the NBC…

If the titles were spread equally, each school would win 1/8, or 12.5% of the titles.  And it should be pointed out shared titles among two or more conference teams actually inflate the percents slightly:  sharing schools each get full title credit, though mathematically, they should only get half credit.  Alright, enough with the math lecture.

As you can see, in the 1990s, Louisville was right about at that 1/8 average, both for boys (14%) and girls (14%).  From 2000-10, Louisville jumped up to winning about 24% of the titles (26% for boys, 21% for girls).  I am guessing that some high school leagues have a strong ‘Yankee’ school that wins titles at about that 20-25% rate.  Also remember that many leagues have one or two schools that doesn’t win titles very much, leaving their extra ‘title percents’ waiting to be scooped up.

What became alarming to those seven schools is the trend in this current decade, where the Leopards have won at least a share of 50% of the NBC titles.  The boys have won 37% of the time.  If you don’t count their strangleholds in cross country and tennis (11 titles in 12 sport seasons), that percent drops to a more reasonable 21%.  The Leopard girls, though, are dominant across the board.  66% is staggering.

That takes us back to this aforementioned statement…

“It is an issue over consideration of competitive balance and competitive equity at all levels in grades seven through 12.”

What has given Louisville this ever increasing upper hand?  And does their recent dominance give justification to the momentous means that the other NBC schools have taken against their long-time conference brother?

To read An Autopsy of the NBC Part 2, click here.

follow the author on twitter:  @macaljancic