The wait is over.  No more mock drafts.  No more Jon Gruden Quarterback camps.  No more 40 times.  No more pro days.  No more hand measurements.

Draft night is here.

This Christmas morning for Browns’ fans, so I decided to write up my own Christmas list for the Browns’ braintrust…

DON’T trade down unless you get a steal.

DON’T trade down any further than #15.

DO pick a an impact player.

DON’T use your top pick on anyone that might shut down the Golden Corral buffet.  NO LINEMEN!  Last year’s offensive line was made up of two #1 picks (Joe Thomas and Alex Mack) as  well as two #2s (Mitchell Schwartz and Joe Bitonio).  That highly drafted group finished #22 in the NFL in rushing.  And on the other side of the ball…

DON’T draft a hole plugger.  No more Danny Sheltons.  No more Phil Taylors.

DO use your #1 pick on an athletic, impact player.  The NFL has is transitioning from a power, smashmouth league to an athletic, speed league.

DO try to trade Joe Thomas for a 1st round pick.  The Browns are likely to struggle for at least 2 years before being a contender. By then, #73 will be near the end of his career.  Let’s get value for him now to draft his replacement for the future.

DO spend a high pick on an offensive playmaker.  It’s a playmaker league.  Wanna get a true picture of the stockpile of playmakers in the Browns’ cupboard?  Go check out the jerseys hanging in the stores.   It’s either Joe Haden, or a clearance rack full of Johnny Manziel and Trent Richardson jerseys.

DON’T trade up or down for the #22 spot.

DON’T pick a quarterback in the #22 spot.  Rest in peace, Brady Quinn, Brandon Weeden, and  Johnny Manziel.

DON’T waste a high pick on a QB.  The #1 and #2 guys, Jared Goff and Connor Wentz, are gone.    No need to go to the B-list of quarterbacks.  Check out this recent article where I broke down the first round  QBs selected  since 1999.

Wanna pick Connor Cook or Paxton Lynch?  You are likely at best picking Kirk Cousins or Matt Schaub.

DO remember that you already drafted a QB this year–Robert Griffin III.  Let’s take a chance and  go all in on RGIII this year.  I need a break from the annual Cleveland  QB controversy carousel.

DO pick a tone-setting player to go with your tone-setting coach.

So Santa, here is my draft wish list when the Browns are on the clock with the #8 pick.

1.  Joey Bosa–recent mock drafts  show him sliding a bit.  Remember his last game?  He dominated Notre Dame before being ejected for targeting.  Maybe he could bring a J.J. Watt attitude to the demoralized Dawg Defense.

2.  Myles Jack, LB–his knee injury has him all over mock draft boards.  And the Browns’ luck would have him re-injuring his knee walking up to the draft podium.  But I love him because he is all over the field.  I have watched the AFC North ruled for the last two decades by players that fly to the ball:  Troy Polamalu, Jerome Harrison, Ray Lewis, Ed Reed.  We need a guy like that to set an attitude for the defensive side of the ball.

3.  DeForest Buckner. DE–I would love to see this 6’7″, 287-pound Oregon Duck coming off the edge to rush the QB.  A great pass rush makes average pass coverage look good.   On the other hand, great coverage will eventually break down if a quality NFL quarterback is given too much time.

4.  Ezekiel Elliott, RB–I am usually not a fan of drafting a running back this high, but Zeke is a special talent.  He is home run hitter.  He is a game-changer.  On top of this, he brings an attitude and identity to the offensive side of the ball.

5.  Jalen Ramsey, CB/S–This Seminole is arguably the most talented player in the draft.  But see #3 to see why I have him down this far on the list.  On the other hand, Reed and  Polamalu were safeties.  Maybe I should rethink this.

6.  Anyone that is not a quarterback.

In spite of the ghosts of NFL drafts past–Richardson,  Manziel, Weeden, Quinn, Justin Gilbert, William Green (I am getting nauseous)–Cleveland fans should look to the immortal words of that 1970s rocker, Rod Stewart…

‘Tonight’s the night….  It’s gonna be alright.”

Maybe Sashi Brown should get a quick peek at Rod’s draft board.

Follow the author on twitter:  @macaljancic

 

To read part 1 of this article, click here.

BROWNS THOUGHT #3:  WE PREFER ANOTHER ROOKIE QB FROM THE SECOND TIER

Head coach Hue Jackson has a great deal of experience working with NFL quarterbacks. Referring to the previously mentioned list of 1st round quarterback selections, Hue has coached the good (Carson Palmer and Joe Flacco), the average (Jason Campbell), and the ugly (Patrick Ramsay and Joey Harrington).  He is also hailed for raising the game of Bengals QB Andy Dalton, while putting back-up A.J. McCarron on the want list of other QB-starved NFL franchises.

With that experience, Hue must have a pretty good feel for what it takes to be successful on Sundays.  Is it possible that he likes one of the second tier guys like Memphis’ Paxton Lynch or Michigan State’s Connor Cook?  If so, he would either have to wait and hope he can get his man with the #32 pick, or be proactive and trade up (or down from #8) to a mid to late 1st round slot.

History shows banking on second tier guys in the later 1st round or early 2nd round is risky business.  You can hit gold with Aaron Rodgers (#24) or Drew Brees (#32).  Solid guys like Dalton (#35), Colin Kaepernick (#36), and Derek Carr (#36) are there.  But there is a lot of mediocrity (Campbell at #25).   Need any examples of misses?  How about the Browns’ trio at the #22 spot: Johnny Manziel, Brandon Weeden, and Brady Quinn.

Likelihood that the Browns’ are thinking this way:  34%

Wisdom in this thinking:  C-  (I don’t think either Cook or Lynch is worth the risk of using a pick that high) 

BROWNS THOUGHT #4:  WE WANT TO GROOM A 3RD-TIER ROOKIE QB

Could they have their eye on Christian Hackenberg, who underperformed at Penn State?  The steady Kevin Hogan of Stanford?  Or how about OSU and hometown folk hero, Cardale Jones?   This Cleveland native likely would have snuck into the first round if he came out for the draft last year after his 3-game explosion that led to a national championship.  Personally, my preference from the C-list would be Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott.

There are a few examples of success of when picking a ‘down the liner’.  Tom Brady (#199) is the ultimate Power Ball lottery ticket.  Russell Wilson (#75) is the rarity that has risen near the elite status.  The likely ideal though, is to find an average to solid player like Matt Schaub (#90), Kyle Orton (#106), or Kirk Cousins (#102).  Probably, though, you are pick someone at the level of these familiar names:  Seneca Wallace (#110) or Charlie Frye (#67).

Likelihood that the Browns’ are thinking this way:  72%  

Wisdom in this thinking:  B+

That grade is based is if they wait until at least the 3rd round. Picking any higher is a waste of a good draft slot.  With plenty of down the road draft picks to burn, they should use one and see what Hue can get out of that choice.  Let the youngster simmer for a few years in Hue Jackson’s crock pot.  You just might end up with a juicy pot roast of a quarterback. 

And drafting a project lessens the level of quarterback controversy when put into the mix with this next guy…

BROWNS THOUGHT #5:  WE WILL TAKE OUR RISK WITH RG III

If the Browns want to address their desperate need of a franchise quarterback, they need to go to NFL casino and place a bet.  Their options appear to be:

A.  Put some serious collateral (in the form of a high draft pick) on the table in hopes of hitting black jack in a year where there are no sure QB bets.

B.  Put some small change (a low draft pick) on a number of the roulette wheel and hope for a miracle.

C.  Drive right on past that casino, pull into a junkyard, and spend a few bucks a broken down ’69 Camaro.  With some mechanical know-how, a lot hard work, and a pinch of good luck, you just might end up with a sweet muscle car.

With Robert Griffin III, you are not trying to re-store a 1991 Chevy Cavalier.  Just 4 years ago, he was the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, setting a record for the highest rookie QB rating at 102.4.  Unfortunately, he injured his knee at the end of the year, which carried into the next season.  Then, in 2014, he missed about half a season due to a dislocated ankle.  Still, his QB ratings were 82.2 and 86.9 those two years.  By comparison, last year, Joe Flacco had an 83.1, and Jameis Winston scored an 84.2.

By 2015, RG III had clearly fallen out of favor with Washington head coach Jay Gruden, not playing a down the entire year.  While that season-long ride on the bench took some serious glow out of his NFL stardom, it also allowed his body to fully heal.

Another positive is that Griffin just turned 26 years old on February 12.   At that age, this guy was a still a college sophomore…

If that doesn’t make you feel better, consider that RG III is only about 4.5 years older than Wentz and Goff (who ironically shares his birthday with Weeden), is exactly 4 years older than Lynch (both born February 12), 3 years older than Cook, and 2.5 years older than Jones.  The idea behind taking many of these rookie QBs is to let them wait and learn for a few seasons before giving them the keys to the offense (think Aaron Rodgers).  Griffin is at that point right now.

Hopefully, his dismal 2015 experience has him hungry for redemption.  The playing window can be brief for NFL players.  I am guessing that Griffin recognizes the importance of this great opportunity to work with a QB mentor such as Hue Jackson.

And by trading out of the #2 spot, Cleveland avoided the quarterback controversy train wreck that surely would have come with drafting Goff or Wentz.

Likelihood that the Browns’ are thinking this way:  84% 

Wisdom in this thinking:  A-  (The Browns are playing with house money on this bet).

BROWNS THOUGHT #6:  WE ARE SMARTER THAN EVERYBODY ELSE.

This is the thought that I fear most.  I wrote about the mistake of having this mentality when examining whether this new Browns’ front office regime can be trusted.

Thinking you are smarter than everybody else gets you to reach for a Weeden.  It gets you to dismiss the red flags of Manziel.  It gets you to overlook the alarming low weight of Barkevious Mingo.  It gets  you to trade out of the chance at Julio Jones because you are the smart one that will find the diamond in the rough later in the draft.  You gloss over warnings about Justin Gilbert because you are smart enough to fix any problems.

So hopefully the Browns’ brain trust uses its analytics to get an edge on borderline decisions, not go over the edge with totally outside-the-box choices.

Here is what Hue Jackson said in a press conference following the trade.

“I told you guys before, I’m not like everybody else,” Jackson said. “Our organization’s not like everybody else. Everybody keeps saying about this player and that player. We go about doing our evaluation the way we do our evaluation. Okay? And that’s not slighting the quarterbacks or any position. What we feel is best for our organization is what we’ve done.”

While Browns’ fans hope for the best, history has all of us expecting the worst.   Hopefully, Coach Jackson and Company can use their wisdom to get Cleveland turned in the right direction.

 e-mail the author:  macaljancic@yahoo.com

Follow him on twitter:  @macaljancic

Browns’ fandom is a sacred tradition that is passed down through the generations like an old family recipe.  My grandpa would paint a legendary picture of Paul Brown, Otto Graham, and Marion Motley dominating on the gridiron.  My dad told me about being in the bleachers watching Jim Brown and Gary Collins lead the Browns to the 1964 NFL Championship   And I myself periodically share with my sons of the agony and ectasy of the 1980s:  Kardiac Kids, Dawg Pound, Bernie Bernie, The Drive, The Fumble,…

Here is  what I envision one of my sons passing down to his boy…

Son, you can’t even imagine the electricity that was in the air that night!  Browns’ fans were out of their seats for this rollercoaster ride of thrills and spills!  I couldn’t even get up to go to the bathroom!

Well actually, I just hit ‘pause’ on the DVR.  But I waited ’til I was about to burst!

 First,  we traded our #4 draft pick to the Bills  for their #9 spot and a bunch of future picks.  We were loaded.  And just think, everyone wanted us to waste a pick on either an over-hyped receiver or some small-school linebacker.  I can’t even remember their names now.  Sammy Napkins? Keel Mack?  

From there, we coulda just played ‘prevent defense’ and sat in that #9 slot waiting to get stuck with some loser.  NO WAY!  Not when a potential Hall of Famer was still floating in the draft air.  We suckered Minnesota into switching their #8 pick with us. I named your twin brothers after the steal we picked up at that spot.  Go tell Justin and Gilbert to come down and listen to the rest of this.  

And that was just the beginning!  You probably won’t believe this, but we still had another first round pick at #26!  I’ll have to tell you how we got that extra pick off the clueless Colts tomorrow night.

Anyhow, we were ON FIRE that night!  Tricking the Eagles into trading spots with us was like shooting fish in a barrel.  We jumped up to #22 and got…….Johnny Football!

You don’t know who that is?  Nowadays, he is better known as… President Manziel!

The NFL draft is just about all hope and joy that Browns’ fans have had since the franchise’s return in 1999.  And I give the Browns credit.  They make the most of draft night.

Not in their selections, of course.  They have made worse picks than Timofey Mosgov.  But the all the various Browns’ front office regimes have been far from boring when the draft lights turn on.  When it comes to trading picks, they do more ‘up-downs’ than a boot camp full of Marines…

2004:  TRADE UP (Kellen Winslow, Jr.)

2006:  TRADE DOWN (Kamerion Wimbley)

2007:  UP (from the 2nd round to get Brady Quinn)

2009:  DOWN, DOWN, and DOWN (Alex Mack)

2011:  DOWN and UP (Phil Taylor)

2012:  UP (Trent Richardson)

2014:  DOWN and UP (Justin Gilbert) and  UP (Johnny Manziel)

Carrying on that tradition, the 2016 Browns traded their coveted #2 position (along with a 2017 4th round pick) to the quarterback-hungry Eagles.  In exchange,  they get Philadelphia’s #8 draft slot, as well as their 3rd and 4th round picks this year.  The Browns also get a 1st round pick in 2017 and a 2nd rounder in 2018.

What does this trade truly say?  I had a palm reader all lined up to get to the root of the problem, but I couldn’t talk the Browns’ higher ups into a sit-down meeting with us.  So I was just about to give my local ‘trade whisperer’ a call when I remembered that it’s 2016.

Feelings, eye tests, and hunches are out.  Number crunching is in.

Time to dust off my Muskingum College mathematics degree, put on my analytics hat, and see what the Browns decision makers are thinking right now…

and whether they are on the right path.

BROWNS THOUGHT #1:  THIS DRAFT DOESN’T HAVE AN ELITE QUARTERBACK

A franchise QB is the holy grail in the NFL.  You pretty much need that golden ticket to have any chance of getting to the NFL’s promised land:  the Super Bowl.

But picking a franchise signal caller is like picking a gold fish at the pet store:  there is a pretty good chance you will be soon flushing either down the toilet.

Here’s a look at every quarterback drafted in the first round since 1999, along with my quarterback grade for each guy.  The 2014 and 2015 grades pure guesses, considering  I would have given RG III an A- after his rookie year.

2015:  #1 Jameis Winston (projected A-/B+), #2 Marcus Mariotta (projected  B/B+)

2014:  #3 Blake Bortles (projected B/B-), #22 Manziel (F),  #32 Teddy Bridgewater (B-/B)

2013:  #156  E.J. Manuel (D)

2012:  #1 Andrew Luck (A-), #2 Robert Griffin III (C), #8 Ryan Tannehill (C), #22 Brandon Weeden (D)

2011:  #1 Cam Newton (A-), #8 Jake Locker (C-/C), #10 Blaine Gabbert (D+), #12 Christian Ponder (D-)

2010:  #1 Sam Bradford (C+/C), #25 Tim Tebow (D)

2009:  #1 Matthew Stafford (B-/B), #5 Mark Sanchez (C-/D+), #17 Josh Freeman (D-)

2008:  #3 Matt Ryan (B/B-), #18 Joe Flacco (B+)

2007:  #1 JaMarcus Russell (F), #22 Brady Quinn (D)

2006:  #3 Vince Young (D), #10 Matt Leinart (D), #11 Jay Cutler (B/B-)

2005:  #1 Alex Smith (B), #24 Aaron Rodgers (A/A+), #25 Jason Campbell (C/C-)

2004:  #1 Eli Manning (B+), #4 Phillip Rivers (B+/B); #11 Ben Roethisberger (A), #22 J.P. Losman (D-)

2003:  #1 Carson Palmer (B), #7 Byron Leftwich (C), #19 Kyle Boller (D-), #22 Rex Grossman (D+)

2002;  #1 David Carr (D), #3 Joey Harrington (D), #32 Patrick Ramsey (F)

2001: #1 Michael Vick (B/B-)

2000:  #18 Chad Pennington (B-/C+)

1999:  #1 Tim Couch (C/C-), #2 Donovan McNabb (B+/B), #3 Akili Smith (F), #11 Donte Culpepper (C/C-), #12 Cade McNown (F)

Of the 42 1st round quarterback selections (I didn’t count 2014 and 2015), there are 4 A’s (10%) , 11 B’s (26%), 9 C’s (21%), 14 D’s (33%), and 4 F’s (10%).

So there is about a 1 in 3 chance of getting a good to great starter.  And it’s about 50/50 that you will totally bomb out.  If you are on the wrong side of that coin toss, you don’t just waste that high draft spot.  You also set your franchise QB search back at least the 2 to 4 years that you give your failed guy to prove himself.

Jared Goff and Connor Wentz are not considered can’t miss picks like Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and Eli Manning.  So the question is, could they be a draft pair bonanza like 2005’s Smith and Rodgers?  Or the dud duo of 2002’s Carr and Harrington?

It will likely be somewhere in between.  But quarterback guru and new Browns’ head coach Hue Jackson wasn’t impressed enough to lobby for the opportunity to play franchise QB roulette.  Time will tell if the Browns’ braintrust chose wisely.  And to be honest, both quarterbacks are fortunate to be going to teams like the Rams and Eagles that have the established roster talent to give the rookie QBs a good chance to start off with some success.

Likelihood that the Browns’ are thinking this  way:  80%

Wisdom in this thinking:  B+  (you rarely get an opportunity to draft a top QB without having to sell the farm to trade up.  But the risk of this picking from this QB crop likely is not worth turning down the Eagles’ boatload of picks).   

BROWNS THOUGHT #2:  WE SERIOUSLY STINK

As the new Browns’ trio of Harvard-educated decision makers–Sashi Brown, Paul DePodesta,  and Andrew Berry– began to unwrap the Browns’ roster that former general manager Ray Farmer gifted them in the weeks  following Christmas,  the words of Buddy the Elf probably came to mind…

 “You stink!  You smell like beef and cheese!”

Last year’s roster was awful enough to go 3-13 and earn the #2 slot in the draft.  Here is what has happened since then:

KEY ROSTER DEPARTURES:  

1.  A pro bowl center (Alex Mack)

2.  A solid starting right tackle (Mitchell Schwartz)

3.  The team’s leading wide receiver  (Travis Benjamin)

4.  The team’s leading tackler (inside linebacker Karlos Dansby)

5.  The team’s second leading tackler (strong safety Donte Whitner)

6.  A starting free safety (Tashaun Gipson)

7.  A starting inside linebacker (Craig  Robertson).

And I almost forgot this part-time starter…

KEY ROSTER ADDITIONS:

1.  A quarterback that did not play a down last year (Robert Griffin III)

2,  A former Jets’ starting inside linebacker (Demario Davis)

If I remember my advanced calculus right, the analytics of this roster shake-up comes down to that elementary school fact that the alligator (or Pac Man) eats the bigger number…

7 DEPARTURES  >  2 ADDITIONS

I am sure the ‘moneyball’ formula spits out the same conclusion.  Right now, the Browns’ roster looks like a piece of Swiss cheese after being the victim of a mafia hit.  There are even holes inside of holes that need to be filled.  Wisely, the Browns didn’t look to plug these gaps with over-priced, over-aged free agents.  They are several years away from even contending, so they best solution is to draft young talent and let them grow up be getting some on-the-job training.  This trade gives them a stockpile of ammunition to attack the problem.

Likelihood that the Browns’ are thinking this  way:  99%

Wisdom in this thinking:  A

Stay tuned for Part 2.

You can e-mail the author:  macaljancic@yahoo.com

Follow the author on twitter:  @macaljancic