Browns’ fandom is a sacred tradition that is passed down through the generations like an old family recipe. My grandpa would paint a legendary picture of Paul Brown, Otto Graham, and Marion Motley dominating on the gridiron. My dad told me about being in the bleachers watching Jim Brown and Gary Collins lead the Browns to the 1964 NFL Championship And I myself periodically share with my sons of the agony and ectasy of the 1980s: Kardiac Kids, Dawg Pound, Bernie Bernie, The Drive, The Fumble,…
Here is what I envision one of my sons passing down to his boy…
Son, you can’t even imagine the electricity that was in the air that night! Browns’ fans were out of their seats for this rollercoaster ride of thrills and spills! I couldn’t even get up to go to the bathroom!
Well actually, I just hit ‘pause’ on the DVR. But I waited ’til I was about to burst!
First, we traded our #4 draft pick to the Bills for their #9 spot and a bunch of future picks. We were loaded. And just think, everyone wanted us to waste a pick on either an over-hyped receiver or some small-school linebacker. I can’t even remember their names now. Sammy Napkins? Keel Mack?
From there, we coulda just played ‘prevent defense’ and sat in that #9 slot waiting to get stuck with some loser. NO WAY! Not when a potential Hall of Famer was still floating in the draft air. We suckered Minnesota into switching their #8 pick with us. I named your twin brothers after the steal we picked up at that spot. Go tell Justin and Gilbert to come down and listen to the rest of this.
And that was just the beginning! You probably won’t believe this, but we still had another first round pick at #26! I’ll have to tell you how we got that extra pick off the clueless Colts tomorrow night.
Anyhow, we were ON FIRE that night! Tricking the Eagles into trading spots with us was like shooting fish in a barrel. We jumped up to #22 and got…….Johnny Football!
You don’t know who that is? Nowadays, he is better known as… President Manziel!
The NFL draft is just about all hope and joy that Browns’ fans have had since the franchise’s return in 1999. And I give the Browns credit. They make the most of draft night.
Not in their selections, of course. They have made worse picks than Timofey Mosgov. But the all the various Browns’ front office regimes have been far from boring when the draft lights turn on. When it comes to trading picks, they do more ‘up-downs’ than a boot camp full of Marines…
2004: TRADE UP (Kellen Winslow, Jr.)
2006: TRADE DOWN (Kamerion Wimbley)
2007: UP (from the 2nd round to get Brady Quinn)
2009: DOWN, DOWN, and DOWN (Alex Mack)
2011: DOWN and UP (Phil Taylor)
2012: UP (Trent Richardson)
2014: DOWN and UP (Justin Gilbert) and UP (Johnny Manziel)
Carrying on that tradition, the 2016 Browns traded their coveted #2 position (along with a 2017 4th round pick) to the quarterback-hungry Eagles. In exchange, they get Philadelphia’s #8 draft slot, as well as their 3rd and 4th round picks this year. The Browns also get a 1st round pick in 2017 and a 2nd rounder in 2018.
What does this trade truly say? I had a palm reader all lined up to get to the root of the problem, but I couldn’t talk the Browns’ higher ups into a sit-down meeting with us. So I was just about to give my local ‘trade whisperer’ a call when I remembered that it’s 2016.
Feelings, eye tests, and hunches are out. Number crunching is in.
Time to dust off my Muskingum College mathematics degree, put on my analytics hat, and see what the Browns decision makers are thinking right now…
and whether they are on the right path.
BROWNS THOUGHT #1: THIS DRAFT DOESN’T HAVE AN ELITE QUARTERBACK
A franchise QB is the holy grail in the NFL. You pretty much need that golden ticket to have any chance of getting to the NFL’s promised land: the Super Bowl.
But picking a franchise signal caller is like picking a gold fish at the pet store: there is a pretty good chance you will be soon flushing either down the toilet.
Here’s a look at every quarterback drafted in the first round since 1999, along with my quarterback grade for each guy. The 2014 and 2015 grades pure guesses, considering I would have given RG III an A- after his rookie year.
2015: #1 Jameis Winston (projected A-/B+), #2 Marcus Mariotta (projected B/B+)
2014: #3 Blake Bortles (projected B/B-), #22 Manziel (F), #32 Teddy Bridgewater (B-/B)
2013: #156 E.J. Manuel (D)
2012: #1 Andrew Luck (A-), #2 Robert Griffin III (C), #8 Ryan Tannehill (C), #22 Brandon Weeden (D)
2011: #1 Cam Newton (A-), #8 Jake Locker (C-/C), #10 Blaine Gabbert (D+), #12 Christian Ponder (D-)
2010: #1 Sam Bradford (C+/C), #25 Tim Tebow (D)
2009: #1 Matthew Stafford (B-/B), #5 Mark Sanchez (C-/D+), #17 Josh Freeman (D-)
2008: #3 Matt Ryan (B/B-), #18 Joe Flacco (B+)
2007: #1 JaMarcus Russell (F), #22 Brady Quinn (D)
2006: #3 Vince Young (D), #10 Matt Leinart (D), #11 Jay Cutler (B/B-)
2005: #1 Alex Smith (B), #24 Aaron Rodgers (A/A+), #25 Jason Campbell (C/C-)
2004: #1 Eli Manning (B+), #4 Phillip Rivers (B+/B); #11 Ben Roethisberger (A), #22 J.P. Losman (D-)
2003: #1 Carson Palmer (B), #7 Byron Leftwich (C), #19 Kyle Boller (D-), #22 Rex Grossman (D+)
2002; #1 David Carr (D), #3 Joey Harrington (D), #32 Patrick Ramsey (F)
2001: #1 Michael Vick (B/B-)
2000: #18 Chad Pennington (B-/C+)
1999: #1 Tim Couch (C/C-), #2 Donovan McNabb (B+/B), #3 Akili Smith (F), #11 Donte Culpepper (C/C-), #12 Cade McNown (F)
Of the 42 1st round quarterback selections (I didn’t count 2014 and 2015), there are 4 A’s (10%) , 11 B’s (26%), 9 C’s (21%), 14 D’s (33%), and 4 F’s (10%).
So there is about a 1 in 3 chance of getting a good to great starter. And it’s about 50/50 that you will totally bomb out. If you are on the wrong side of that coin toss, you don’t just waste that high draft spot. You also set your franchise QB search back at least the 2 to 4 years that you give your failed guy to prove himself.
Jared Goff and Connor Wentz are not considered can’t miss picks like Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, and Eli Manning. So the question is, could they be a draft pair bonanza like 2005’s Smith and Rodgers? Or the dud duo of 2002’s Carr and Harrington?
It will likely be somewhere in between. But quarterback guru and new Browns’ head coach Hue Jackson wasn’t impressed enough to lobby for the opportunity to play franchise QB roulette. Time will tell if the Browns’ braintrust chose wisely. And to be honest, both quarterbacks are fortunate to be going to teams like the Rams and Eagles that have the established roster talent to give the rookie QBs a good chance to start off with some success.
Likelihood that the Browns’ are thinking this way: 80%
Wisdom in this thinking: B+ (you rarely get an opportunity to draft a top QB without having to sell the farm to trade up. But the risk of this picking from this QB crop likely is not worth turning down the Eagles’ boatload of picks).
BROWNS THOUGHT #2: WE SERIOUSLY STINK
As the new Browns’ trio of Harvard-educated decision makers–Sashi Brown, Paul DePodesta, and Andrew Berry– began to unwrap the Browns’ roster that former general manager Ray Farmer gifted them in the weeks following Christmas, the words of Buddy the Elf probably came to mind…
“You stink! You smell like beef and cheese!”
Last year’s roster was awful enough to go 3-13 and earn the #2 slot in the draft. Here is what has happened since then:
KEY ROSTER DEPARTURES:
1. A pro bowl center (Alex Mack)
2. A solid starting right tackle (Mitchell Schwartz)
3. The team’s leading wide receiver (Travis Benjamin)
4. The team’s leading tackler (inside linebacker Karlos Dansby)
5. The team’s second leading tackler (strong safety Donte Whitner)
6. A starting free safety (Tashaun Gipson)
7. A starting inside linebacker (Craig Robertson).
And I almost forgot this part-time starter…
KEY ROSTER ADDITIONS:
1. A quarterback that did not play a down last year (Robert Griffin III)
2, A former Jets’ starting inside linebacker (Demario Davis)
If I remember my advanced calculus right, the analytics of this roster shake-up comes down to that elementary school fact that the alligator (or Pac Man) eats the bigger number…
7 DEPARTURES > 2 ADDITIONS
I am sure the ‘moneyball’ formula spits out the same conclusion. Right now, the Browns’ roster looks like a piece of Swiss cheese after being the victim of a mafia hit. There are even holes inside of holes that need to be filled. Wisely, the Browns didn’t look to plug these gaps with over-priced, over-aged free agents. They are several years away from even contending, so they best solution is to draft young talent and let them grow up be getting some on-the-job training. This trade gives them a stockpile of ammunition to attack the problem.
Likelihood that the Browns’ are thinking this way: 99%
Wisdom in this thinking: A
Stay tuned for Part 2.