What’s the key to winning an NBA game, series, and title?
Talent surely deserves the top billing, but there are also other considerations: health, chemistry, leadership, strategy,…
But when crunching numbers, what is the biggest tell-tale sign as to which team will get the W? Whether you ask any modern-day stat geek, or even the most ardent old-school hoops guru, you will likely get more answers than a teenager that walks in the door after curfew. Turnover margin. Points in the paint. Shooting percentage. Bench points. Offensive rebounds. Fast break points. Limiting their best player. Free throws made. Second chance points.
But I believe that the truest path to victory is very simple…
THE TEAM WITH MORE EASY SHOTS WINS
Find a team that generates more easy shots, while limiting their opponent’s easy looks, and you will find the winner.
The Cavaliers’ performance during their 10-0 start in this year’s NBA post-season is Exhibit A in support of my Einstein-like theory. Especially when you contrast it with the six previous Lebron-led Cavs’ play-off teams.
Lets’ examine 5 ways that Cleveland has gained a dominant foothold in the easy-shot category…
#1 EZ shot maker: BALL MOVEMENT
Those previous Lebron teams had a very similar offensive pattern, or lack thereof. Some moments of ball movement sprinkled among a heavy dose of isolation ball (a.k.a., the ‘stanky leg’ offense):
First, LBJ dribbles the shot clock down. What does he do next? Let’s see our options:
Curtain 1: He drives in to finish.
Curtain 2: pulls up for a long shot (too often an exaggerated and unnecessary fade away)
Curtain 3: Drives and kicks the ball out for (insert spot-up shooter): Kevin Love, Boobie Gibson, J.R. Smith (swish!), Shaun Marion (clank!), Donyell Marshall, Mo Williams, Larry Hughes, Sasha Pavlovic, …
Opposing defenses have always sagged to help defend against the drives of James, allowing for some shooting space on the perimeter. But the minimal offensive movement of isolation ball also means minimal defensive moment, thus allowing defenders to be in better position to recover and contest outside shots.
I wrote about the Cavalier’s offensive offensive woes during the regular season in this clesportstalk.com roundtable discussion.
Consider the Cavs’ offensive failures in their two previous trips to the NBA Finals against the 2007 Spurs and 2015 Warriors. Those two great teams focused on smothering LeBron while still being able to contain the Cavs’ lesser supporting cast. J.R. Smith took some heavy abuse from the media and fans after shooting 31% in that Golden State series (he shot 50% in the previous two series). But in defense of Mr. Swish, he had very few open looks. J.R. can make some spectacular contested shots, but he needs some easy looks to get his rhythm and confidence going. The Warrior defense all but eliminated those open shots.
The ‘Stanky Leg’ O did bring a bunch of series wins to the franchise. Why? Because you had LeBron James running it. That Cavs’ style wasn’t nearly as successful during LeBron’s four-year sabbatical when Kyrie Irving was dominating the ball.
Heck, LBJ could probably get to the finals running this coach’s Hickory Husker 5-pass, 4-man offense…
If it worked for Jimmy Chitwood, it should work for LeBron. And little Ollie probably couldn’t shoot any worse than Shawn Marion.
The new Tyron Lue version of the Cavaliers’ offense has had spectacular results. Sure, the Eastern Conference level of competition is very suspect, but during the regular season, Cleveland actually won more games vs. the West (73%) than the East (67%). Cleveland has had some growing pains since Lue was hired in late January. But after four months, you can see that the team has fully bought into his ball movement philosophy.
The Cavs have shot lights out, obliterating many NBA team three-point records in the Atlanta series. General Manager David Griffin has done a great job of filling the roster with shooters, and Lue has trended towards a smaller line-up that gets more of those shooters on the floor. But the key to making so many treys was the superior ball movement that created an avalanche of open looks.
LeBron and Kyrie are two of the best drivers and shot creators in the game. But those two are much more deadly after receiving passes within a moving offense, which puts the defense out of position. That allows more space to drive, which forces the defense to move more when collapsing to the paint. That, in turn, opens up more space for perimeter shooters. And when those open shooters then make an extra pass or two around the arc, the trigger shooter has enough time to style his hair, snap a selfie, and then splash in a three. And this post-season, the Cavs have put enough daggers in the Pistons, Hawks, and Raptors to finish off an elephant.
#2 EZ shot maker: DOMINATING THE BOARDS
You can’t get easy shots if you don’t have the ball. And rebounding gets you the ball. The Cavs have done a great job on the glass in the post-season, grabbing 6.8 more rebounds per game than their opponents. Cleveland has an 11.1-7.7 offensive rebounding advantage, largely in part to Tristan Thompson’s ball hawking. That has given them a 13.1-9.5 advantage in second chance points.
On the defensive end, they have done a great job of limiting their opponents to one shot, demoralizing struggling offenses and also allowing for those big offensive runs that the Cavs have made to take over games. And those defensive boards allow Kevin Love to launch those NFL outlet passes down court, which leads to…
#3 EZ shot maker: UP-TEMPO OFFENSE
Coach Lue’s first order of business when hired was to increase the team’s offensive tempo. It took a while to fine tune, but the Wine and Gold now run like a Kentucky Derby winner. Kevin Love sets the tone with his precision outlet passing. LBJ is finally consistently running the floor like the freight train we saw in that #6 Heat jersey. The rest of the team is keeping pace, not only in transition offense, but also in keeping the ball moving in the half court. There is much less of that tired, but familiar ‘pull the ball out and re-set the offense’ style that we had been accustomed to seeing in years past.
Lesser teams want to slow the pace, creating fewer possessions, and thus shortening the game. That was what the Cavs did in last year’s Finals. Better teams should want to get in as many possessions as possible to impose their advantage. Cleveland is doing just that.
#4 EZ shot maker: TEAM DEFENSE
The Cavaliers have taken their defense to the next level during this play-off run. LBJ looks as active as a frisky teenager, flying all over the court. Love and Irving look to be shedding that ‘defensive liability’ label that has been tattooed on their NBA resume. Smith has become a defensive stopper, and Thompson plays so much bigger than his 6-foot, 9- inch frame.
This defensive effort creates turnovers, with leads to…
#5 EZ shot maker: WINNING THE TURNOVER BATTLE
Turnovers not only keep an offense from scoring, but also provide a hard-working defense with the chance to convert it into an easy transition basket. The Cavs hold a slight 11.8-10.5 per game turnover advantage. But Cleveland has used their up-tempo mentality to make the most of those miscues, holding a 17.3-11.4 advantage in points off turnovers.
Can the Cavaliers continue to keep this dominating play up all the way to an NBA crown? A trip to Toronto for the Raptors’ last stand won’t be a cakewalk. And the NBA Finals will surely be a gauntlet, whether it is Golden State or the OKC. But if the Cavs continue win the ‘EZ shots’ battle, Cleveland fans will likely be able to shed that martyr mentality of the city’s five-decade title drought.