To read An Autopsy on the NBC Part 1, click here.
Part 1 examined Louisville’s recent NBC dominance in football (21-0 record over the last three seasons with an average score of 46-12), as well as their their growing stranglehold over all sports in the conference (50% of all titles won since 2010).
That takes us back to the statement of Marlington Superintendent Joe Knoll, acting as spokesman for the seven schools withdrawing from the NBC…
“It is an issue over consideration of competitive balance and competitive equity at all levels in grades seven through 12.”
Louisville’s growing success has obviously led to a lack of competitive balance and equity within the NBC. Two questions thus come to mind:
1. How has Louisville gained such a competitive advantage?
2. Does this competitive inequity justify the abandonment of a long-time conference partner and neighbor?
Let’s first examine the issue of competitive advantage:
High schools can have an athletic advantage (fair or unfair) in a variety of ways…
One way is to bring in athletes from outside the district via recruitment and/or open enrollment. Louisville does not really fall into this category.
Another way a school can gain an advantage is to be blessed with an abundance of elite collegiate division-1 level athletes. Louisville have had three in the last 20 years: Bobby Swigert (class of 2010, Boston College), Joe Duckworth (2014, Ohio University), and Alex Hall (2016, Fordham). Ironically, injuries ended Swigert’s senior season after week 4, while Duckworth missed half his junior year and his entire senior year. So Louisville’s D1 athlete advantage is minimal at best.
The prime suspect in this investigation is student enrollment, where Louisville has always had an edge within the NBC. Bigger schools have the advantage of having a larger pool of students from which to draw to fill their team rosters. But every league has to have a biggest school. The question is whether the NBC enrollment gap has grown such that has created in unfair advantage.
Here are the last five male enrollment totals gathered and used by the OHSAA to place schools in divisions. (Note that the OHSAA counts the enrollments of grades 9-11 during the fall prior to the school year the count is being used for. Those enrollment totals are then used for a two-year cycle. So this year’s 2015-16 school year enrollment totals for grades 10-12 are based on attendance in taken as of October 31, 2014 for grades 9-11. And they likely count just three grades, instead of all four, because very few freshmen contribute at the varsity level. You can find the enrollments on this OHSAA website)
While all school districts have declined in enrollment, the bottom schools–Minerva, Canton South, and West Branch–have pretty much had the biggest enrollment drops. This next table gives of percent comparisons gives a better picture of how the composition of the NBC has changed since 2007:
Several data items stand out. One is that Louisville’s enrollment gap over the smallest school increased from 39% to 55%. What amplifies this problem is that currently, the four smallest NBC schools are very similar in enrollment. Thus Louisville is at least 48% bigger than half of the schools in the league. In 2007, all but Minerva were within 30% of Louisville.
What also has hurt the NBC’s enrollment balance is the replacement of a bigger school in Northwest with a smaller school in Salem. Not only was Northwest on par with Louisville on the gridiron, but they also were a perennial power in the other big revenue sport, boys’ basketball.
I addressed this growing enrollment divide in my NBC blog from last summer by proposing the creation of a two-division NBC by seeking to add Dover and New Philadelphia…
This set-up looks great on paper. The enrollments are very balanced. In the previously mentioned Alliance Review article from Part 1, Mike Brown wrote that the NBC explored this possibility, but could not get two schools interested in joining Louisville, Dover, and New Philadelphia in the upper division. So that possible remedy never got off the ground.
The tangible enrollment data definitely points to a growing competitive advantage for Louisville. But I would speculate to say there is one other key aspect that has the enhanced Leopards’ competitive advantage within the NBC. That would be the ability of the Louisville school system and community to develop bumper crops of athletes at young ages that eventually fill their high school rosters.
I believe that many communities, not just locally, but across the state and country, are struggling to maintain their youth participation numbers in many sports. I have several reasons for my theory:
1. There are more sports options for children to participate in than in the past, which spreads the kids thinner among those choices.
2. There are more non-sports options for children to participate in than in the past.
3. Technology temptations—X-box, iPads, smart phones,…– keep more kids off the playing field and on their couches at home.
4. More athletes specialize in just one sport at a younger age, especially due to the greater emphasis on playing on ‘travel’ teams, which increases both time and financial demands.
5. Greater fears about the effects of concussions have influenced football participation.
Some communities, like Louisville, have withstood these detrimental factors better than others. Their success in reaching and developing a good percentage of their elementary students provides them with a much larger number of athletes to draw from at the high school level.
This is especially true in football. From sitting through my two sons’ Dover middle school football games for the last three seasons, I have noticed that many schools on the opposite sideline are struggling to get even 20 players on their teams.
Louisville, on the other hand, has used their in-house Little Leopard football program (over five decades old) for leagues in grades 5-6 as well as 7-8. This past fall, they had 84 seventh and eighth graders filling four teams that play each other. Those four teams add up to 88 starting positions available (11 each on offense and defense). Most other schools have one team in both 7th and 8th grade, which provides only 44 starting spots. Less starting spots mean fewer repetitions and playing time. And fewer reps not only mean less development, but also less interest in staying in that sport. Doubling the number of starting spots, on the other hand, also means doubling the number of touches of the football–runs, passes, and catches–that draws athletes to stay in the sport.
Some NBC schools have voiced their displeasure with this set-up, saying it provides the Leopard football program with an unfair advantage. The numbers, both in participation and results, suggest that it is a definite advantage. Louisville supporters would argue, tough, that there is nothing unfair about it. They are just doing what they feel is best for their kids, and that any school can do their own version of an in-house league if they so desire. And besides that, it saves the school system the tax dollar expense of running a middle school football program.
Another piece of evidence would be middle school boys’ basketball, which tends to be a good reflection of the depth of athletes within a class. That’s because most better athletes at that age are playing a winter sport (either basketball or wrestling). Over the last six years, Louisville’s 7th grade boys have won the NBC hoops title every year, accumulating a dominant record of 98-4.
These advantages, both factual (enrollment) as well as speculative (community influence), have brought this issue of ‘competitive balance and competitive equity’ to a boiling point within the league. Prior to the messy ‘divorce’ proceeding of this current school year, some felt that Louisville needed to see the writing on the wall and take their big fish success to a bigger pond. Even many Leopard fans wondered if it was time to find a better competitive fit for their squads.
The obvious bigger pond in the neighborhood would be the Leopards’ former home, the Federal League.
Leopard fans wondered how they would measure up with the giants of Stark County. The vibe among much of the rest of the NBC was it was time for Louisville to pick on someone their own size. Let’s see how the enrollment numbers stack up between the two leagues…
Obviously, Louisville goes from the top of the food chain to the bottom. The ‘See Ya Later, Louisville’ contingent would turn common Louisville argument against themselves. That being the Leopards’ NBC dominance has been more a result of hard work and program development rather than enrollment discrepancies. If those traits made Louisville the unchallenged King of the NBC, they should allow the Leopards to successfully compete in the ‘big leagues’.
Many, like me, however, recognize the effect of enrollment disparities in both leagues. It has definitely aided Louisville in the NBC. And I feel it would also make it extremely difficult for the Leopards to consistently compete in the Federal League. The best way to illustrate this is to put both sides of the NBC debate into each other’s shoes. Examining the enrollment percentage differences, the current situation for the smallest NBC schools would be comparable to this imaginary league for Louisville…
At first glance, Louisville fans would likely be excited to be in this imaginary league. But as you consider it more, you could see that the Leopards would have absolutely no breathers on this schedule, and many enormous challenges to face. When you have a great team, those challenging match-ups can be thrilling. But in those years when you have a mediocre or less roster of athletes, that daunting schedule would make for a very long year of losing. It should give Louisville followers a better picture of the situation many NBC schools currently in.
Now let’s turn the tables and put the small trio of Minerva, West Branch, and Canton South into an imaginary league comparable to Louisville’s slot in the Federal League…
To call that schedule a terrifying gauntlet would be an huge understatement. This comparison should give those NBC schools a better understanding why Louisville has not exactly been running towards the Federal League diving board.
Hopefully all of this paints a clearer portrait of both sides of this NBC debate. Some feel that Louisville has been betrayed by their long-time conference brethren. Others feel that Louisville has clearly outgrown the league, and those seven schools were forced to take action for their own sake. Either way, I think most would agree that the primary focus of all eight NBC schools is to look out for the best interests of their student-athletes.
Personally, I would love to see both sides come together and seek a compromise. But in this situation, is there any common ground to build upon? Putting on my best Henry Clay hat (look it up, non-historians), I would propose a two-year trial where Louisville would go independent in football while maintaining its NBC status in other sports. Other NBC schools would have the option of playing the Leopards if they want. This would start in the 2018-19 school year, since league scheduling contracts bind all schools until then. To further ease tensions, Louisville could even offer the olive branch of allowing a couple of schools out of their 2017 football contract. It is tough to fill a bunch of football vacancies within that time frame, but I would believe that filling two spots would be workable.
Could this compromise work? I think many NBC schools would find this as an appealing alternative. In his recent ‘Sunday Special’ article in The Canton Repository, long-time writer Todd Porter addressed the idea that some NBC football coaches value the opportunity to make their program better by playing Louisville each year. And its likely that many NBC athletic budgets are going to miss the large ticket sale gate totals that Louisville brings in many sports.
Unfortunately, the recent announcement of their plans of departure by the seven NBC schools make the hopes of any compromise talks minimal at best. The official ‘divorce’ appears to be simply waiting on the submission of paperwork formalities. But for those eternal NBC optimists, you can always channel your inner Lloyd from Dumb and Dumber…
However the future of the NBC plays out, I challenge fans on both sides of this issue to do their best to take the high road. Focus your energies on supporting your own school, as opposed to attacking your opposition.
Look for a uncoming blog exploring the possible ripple effects of this NBC break-up on surrounding area schools.