To read League Shuffling Part 1: The I.V.C. and P.A.C. 7, click here.
To read League Shuffling Part 2: Dover, New Phila, and the E.C.O.L., click here.
**SHARE YOUR OPINION IN THE POLLS AT THE END**
As stated in League Shake-Ups Part 2, the future of the East Central Ohio League is murky at best. Because if this uncertainty, New Philadelphia and Dover should consider other possibilities that might be a better and more stable fit.
I feel that a great solution for these longtime neighbors and rivals is to become a part of the Northeastern Buckeye Conference. The N.B.C. has been a very stable conference since its inception in 1989, with 6 of the schools being charter members: Canton South, Carrollton, Louisville, Marlington, Minerva, and West Branch. Alliance joined in 2005 and Salem in 2011. Dover was a charter member, but left for the E.C.O.L. in 1994.
(full disclosure: for the last 20 years, I have been a Dover resident and a teacher at Louisville).
Along with stability, another strength of the N.B.C. is the close proximity of its members, which has created many natural, healthy rivalries. Most of the league members are within a 30-minute drive. So, on the surface, the N.B.C. would appear to have little reason to reach out from its time-tested eight-member cocoon. But within the last couple of years, the issue of competitive balance in relation to enrollment has caused rumblings within the conference, as explained in this Mike Brown Alliance Review article.
Many schools have lost enrollment, while Louisville has grown in enrollment and have become more dominant, especially in football. In the last two seasons, they are 14-0 in league play, with the average league score of 42-14. Only one of those games was closer than 13 points.
The enrollment gap has lessened some with the most recent OHSAA enrollment figures (based on boys grade 9-11 from this past school year):
Louisvville has come back to the pack some, while Alliance has closed its gap deficit from 100 to 38 boys. Still some of the smaller schools had significant drops.
That is where adding Dover and New Philadelphia would be a great way to address the enrollment disparities. A two-division big/small school set-up would create an intriguing line-up:
* travel times are calculated from Mapquest website
On paper, this looks like a great solution for the enrollment problems in the N.B.C. The enrollment gap within the big school division is only 49 boys, and 53 boys for the small school division.
It also appears to be a best-case scenario for Dover and New Philadelphia for both travel and competition. Remember that in the E.C.O.L., the overall average drive time was 55 minutes, as well as 74 minutes just within big school division opponents.
These drive times look even more appealing for the two Tuscarawas County brothers if the N.B.C. was split into North and South divisions for some non-football sports:
You could possibly even rotate Minerva and Louisville in the South Division from year to year if need be.
After studying that data, I am guessing Dover and New Phila school officials have only one question:
WHERE DO I SIGN????
Unfortunately for Tornado and Quaker fans, the N.B.C. is an invitation-only party, and the hosts migh not be too inclined to add two more seats to their conference table.
Several concerns from the current N.B.C.’s perspective could possibly put the brakes on this potential marriage.
Please note that I am addressing this primarily from the perspective of football because that sport seems to heavily drive the decision-making of schools and leagues due to the large revenue and crowds it generates.
Three red flags quickly come to mind.
Red Flag #1: while this proposal makes for better travel for Dover and New Philadelphia, it creates longer drives for current NBC schools. Currently, Salem’s longest conference drive is 50 minutes to Canton South. It would be a 72-minute drive to New Philadelphia for the ‘Pacifist Bowl’: Quakers vs. Quakers.
Positive spin zone #1: Remember that with two divisions, Salem and West Branch would likely be making a long trip to Dover or New Philadelphia only once every two years .
Red Flag #2: Like mentioned when discussing the expansion of the Inter-Valley Conference in part 1, two-division conferences grouped by size sometimes create a ‘big brother-little brother’ mentality where smaller schools are made to feel that their success is somehow inferior to their big-school division counterparts.
Positive spin zone #2: as mentioned above, the 2-division arrangement creates a more competitive balance, alleviating the Louisville enrollment gap problem that the league is currently facing, while keeping the strong and long lasting bonds of these schools in tack. Even if the smaller schools tend to lose more to the bigger schools, they still have a divisional crown to strive for and while being battle-tested by the bigger schools to prepare for the post-season. (Note in the above chart that all schools are division 2 in basketball and either division 3 or 4 for football. So the league competition level would be comparable to the post-season level).
And having two divisions makes it easier for the conference to expand if the opportunity arises. For example, I am pretty sure Northwest would have loved to get back in the N.B.C. over the last five years, but a nine-team conference is a nightmare. It would have been much easier to add them the 6th small school division member.
Red Flag #3: What is worse than having a dominant Louisville football program in the N.B.C.? Having two dominant Louisville football programs in the N.B.C. That is what adding Dover would create. Dover has won 7 out of the last 8 E.C.O.L. championships. And New Philadelphia is no slouch itself, averaging 7.7 wins since 2004.
So why would the N.B.C. even consider inviting these two schools? Wouldn’t a much simpler solution to the enrollment issue be for the 7 smaller N.B.C. schools to vote out Louisville? That controversial rumor has been circulating over the last year.
I think the likely cost of subtracting the Leopards would make this a regretful decision.
One obvious cost would be in the bottom line. Louisville fans travel very well, and dropping the Leopards would be a big loss for N.B.C. schools in ticket sales. On the flip side, Dover and New Philadelphia have big followings that would provide a big boost at the ticket gate.
A more significant cost for the N.B.C. in dropping Louisville is one that can’t be measured: a serious drop in performance level expectations for a league whose pigskin product has already been sliding. That statement may sound like an harsh opinion, but an examination of recent play-off results makes it appear to be very much a fact.
Recent post-season history shows a serious decline in the performance of the once powerful N.B.C. The last two Louisville squads that rolled through the conference were, by their own Leopard standards, probably considered very good, but not great teams. That is evident in their first round play-off games losses at home in 2013 (24-21 to Aurora) and 2014 (41-21 to Poland). Both opponents lost their next game by double digits, so it’s not like the Leopards ran into a play-off superpower.
In fact, the N.B.C. is 0-4 in play-off games over the last three years. What makes that dismal record even more alarming is that the conference previously thrived in the play-offs. It won at least one play-off game from 2001 to 2011. Furthermore, from 2004 to 2011, the N.B.C. averaged 3.1 wins per post-season!
So what has caused this downslide? There are likely a variety of smaller factors, but I would say that the primary reason would be the departure of Northwest from the N.B.C. after– no coincidence–the 2011 season. (Northwest had to drop out of the conference after a severe financial crisis put them on the brink of dropping all sports).
In those glory years of 2004-2011, Louisville made one state finals appearance, while Northwest and Marlington each made a trip to the final four. The Leopards and Indians also made two more appearances each in the regional finals. Canton South, West Branch, and Minerva also won a play-off game each during that period. Those post-season runs not only generate tremendous community support and passion, but also gain media attention and respect for the N.B.C.
Here is a full picture of the N.B.C.’s play-off results over the past 15 years:
The post-season success Northwest created a great amount of positive buzz for the N.B.C. But their contribution to the N.B.C. went well beyond the 9 play-off appearances and 10 wins. The strength and the success of Coach Vic Witting’s Indians pushed its league opponents to raise their performance levels. The Louisville-Northwest match-up was an epic battle each year that drove each squad to elevate its own play and prepared them for the play-off roads ahead. In fact, the 2007 Louisville state-finalist team actually lost a 34 to 33 nail-biter to the Indians. And the success of those two programs pushed other N.B.C. schools to higher performance levels in order to survive and even thrive. Coach Ed Miley lifted Marlington up to become one of the league powers, and Mo Daniska’s Canton South squads were a feared match-up for anyone in the N.B.C., especially for Louisville. They also had some great regular season and play-off match-ups with Dover during that time period.
The loss of Northwest created a void that has pulled the N.B.C. towards mediocrity. Adding Dover and New Philadelphia would more than make up for that loss. The Quakers have made 7 play-off appearances since 2004 (they are still looking for their first win). As for the Tornadoes, they have missed the play-offs only TWICE since 1998. More impressively, since 2006, they have won 14 play-off games, getting to the final four in 2012 and making the regional finals in four other seasons.
One concern for leagues with a big/small division set-up is the potential for a large number of mismatches in cross-over games. (That is a big problem with the E.C.O.L.) Though Louisville almost always seems to wear the hat of the favorite, results show that the conference has actually spread the wealth at the top. Over the past 11 seasons, the N.B.C. has had 7 different schools as league champions. That impressive fact illustrates the quality programs within the league and their ability to rise up and be successful. In fact, the two smallest teams in the league, Minerva and West Branch, won the league as recently as 2011 and 2012, respectively.
Ideally the league would have a 7- game football season. 4 division games, as well as 3 cross-over games. To possibly minimize concerns about cross-over games as well as losing potential rivalry games, several items could be implemented:
1. Try to avoid putting both Dover and Louisville on a small school’s cross-over schedule.
2. Possibly only requiring two league cross-over games, while giving schools the flexibility to schedule more cross-over games if desired that wouldn’t count towards league standings. For example, Alliance and Marlington may want to schedule most or all of the smaller division given their close proximity to those schools.
Beyond football, adding the Quakers and Tornadoes would help elevate the N.B.C. and bring recognition in other sports. Dover boys basketball made the regionals the past two years, while the Quakers reached the regional finals the two years prior. New Phila’s girls basketball team also made it to the regionals this past season. I could see the N.B.C. renting the Canton Memorial Fieldhouse for a full day of hoops, matching up the 5th, 4th, 3rd, 2nd, and 1st place teams in each division. Girls one Saturday, and boys the next.
Dover’s baseball team made it to the regionals this year, while their boys swim team finished 2nd in the state and the girls’ golf team won the state title. There are numerous other achievements that these two schools would bring to the conference.
Another thing to also consider is that Minerva and Carrollton are currently the only two N.B.C. schools in the Eastern District. Being joined by New Philadelphia and Dover would provide them with more clout in seeding and gaining all-district honors for athletes.
The one thing that history shows about the evolution of high school leagues is that timing is an essential ingredient. A school might be a great fit for a conference that has no openings. Or a league might greatly desire a school that fits their ideals, but that school is tied into another conference.
For New Philadelphia, Dover, and the N.B.C., it appears that the stars are aligned at this moment. Hesitation by the N.B.C. to invite these two may lead to a very unstable future for a very proud conference. Hopefully the administrators and athletic directors of these schools can work together to make decisions that are best for the future of the entire league.
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