Let’s take a look at the progress of COVID cases, speaking specifically of Steuben County, though as far as I can see the patterns are also very similar among the surrounding counties. In particular I’m looking here at numbers of cases, by thousands, as reported on line through the Steuben County Public Health Department. We go back to March 2020, as the COVID first appeared here in the U.S., and a global pandemic was correctly predicted.

It took over 7 months (3/11-10/26, 2020) to reach our first thousand cases.
It took a little over one month (10/26-12/4, 2020) to reach 2000.
It took less than three weeks (12/4-12/23, 2020) to reach 3000.
It took a little over two weeks (12/4/2020-1/8/2021) to reach 4000.
It took just under three weeks (1/8-1/28, 2021) to reach 5000.
It took a little over two months (1/28-4/2, 2021) to reach 6000.
It took almost four months (4/2/-7/29, 2021) to reach 7000.
It took a month and a half (7/29-9/15, 2021) to reach 8000.
It took just over two weeks (9/15-10/1, 2021) to reach 9000.
It took a little over two weeks (10/1-10/18, 2021) to reach 10,000.
It took about three weeks (10/18-11/8, 2021) to reach 11,000.
It took just over two weeks (11/8/-11/24, 2021) to reach 12,000.
It took a little over two weeks (11/24-12/8, 2021) to reach 13,000.
It took exactly two weeks (12/8-12/22) to reach 14,000.
It took just over two weeks (12/22/2021-1/7/2022) to reach 15,000.
It took three days (1/7-1/10) to reach 16,000. *
It took two days (1/10-1/12, 2022) to reach 17,000.
It took slightly over two days (1/12-1/15) to reach 18,000.
It took almost four days (1/15-1/19) to reach 19,000.
It took five days (1/19-1/24) to reach 20,000.
*Numerous home testing kits began to be made available beginning during this period.

I am writing this on Monday, January 31, prior to tonight’s scheduled release of new figures. I expect that we will break 21,000; if so, that makes seven days (one week) to get our latest thousand cases.

Now I loudly proclaim that I am NOT a doctor or an epidemiologist. I’m a historian and an administrator, so I’m looking at these figures from those viewpoints only, and am fully open to correction from those who actually know better (as opposed to those who just like to THINK they know better – and I don’t need any Laetrile, either, thank you.)

It took quite a while to reach our first thousand, perhaps because early spread takes a while to trek across the countryside, and also because testing regimes were only being developed and implemented – in other words, it seems plausible that the number of cases was actually higher, as some would have been undetected and even unsuspected.
The pace picked up beginning in October of 2020 – partly perhaps because the onset of early winter kept people inside more – a standard vector for respiratory diseases. There was also by this time a weariness with preventive measures including mask discipline. This carelessness was also fueled by President Trump’s erratic or uncertain behaviors. To many people, insisting that there was no real problem was a sign of quasi-religious loyalty to Trump. Many of them got sick, and in many cases passed the virus on to others. Herman Cain died. Trump himself had to be hospitalized, while dozens of his associates and family members also became ill.

In three months Steuben added 4000 cases, then things started to slow again as February dawned. People began getting outside again, and vaccines were finally being issued. Although multiple doses were called for, even a single shot provided some degree of protection, and perhaps people were encouraged to maintain discipline a little longer, with a light at the end of the tunnel.

Things looked good – it took four months to get another thousand cases! But the Delta variant helped push cases higher, and by November we also had the Omicron variant – generally less deadly, but vastly more communicable. By mid-September Steuben was consistently identifying a thousand new cases every two weeks – besides Omicron, we were also returning to “flu weather,” and its typical rise in respiratory diseases.

In January, the pace went UP – a thousand cases every two or three days! Quite possibly part of the reason was the widespread release of home test kits – with more people being tested, the numbers unsurprisingly increased.

Things have started to improve. It took four days to reach from 18,000 to 19,000… five days from 19,000 to 20,000… at least seven days from 20,000 to 21,000. That’s still not even as good as it was in the four months (almost) from mid-September to early January. But it may be the herald of better times – IF we all act sensibly, esteeming others more highly than ourselves, and doing the best we can for those around us – rather than insisting that we will just suit ourselves and take our chances. The problem with that is, that we’re also taking OTHER people’s chances. Without giving them a choice.