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2015 Oscar Predictions

Well, it’s almost that time of year. Time for the King Daddy of all award shows, the Oscars. Here I will go over who I think SHOULD win (subjective) that pretty golden statue, and who I think WILL win (objective), on Sunday, February 22.

Best Picture

This is pretty much a two horse race, with two other films having a longshot of playing spoiler. The only film with practically no shot of winning is “Selma”, which only has one other nomination (Best Song, which it will win). Other films like “Whiplash”, “Imitation Game” and “Theory of Everything” were solid, but pretty much it will come down to “Boyhood” vs “Birdman”. “American Sniper” and “The Grand Budapest Hotel” have picked up immense momentum since January, so they have the best shot of being a dark horse. Of the films nominated I personally found “Imitation Game” the best, but I think the final award of the night will go to “Boyhood” due to all that went in to making the film. Plus the theme song of the film, “Hero”, is fantastic.

SHOULD WIN: The Imitation Game

WILL WIN: Boyhood

Variety

Variety

Best Director

Probably the most interesting competition of this year. It will likely come down to Richard Linklater (“Boyhood”) and Alejandro González Iñárritu (“Birdman”), but it goes deeper than that. Both men created projects that defied what we knew about film, with Linklater using the same cast to film “Boyhood” over 12 years, and Iñárritu shooting “Birdman” is continuous, sometimes 15 minute long takes. Whoever loses this award will likely take home Best Original Screenplay, so they shouldn’t hang their head for too long. I think Linklater wins because of his dedication and control of such a monumentally unique film. Other nominees include Wes Anderson (chance to win here or Original Screenplay for “Budapest”), Bennett Miller (who was nominated for his work on “Foxcatcher”, yet the film did not receive a Best Picture nod) and Morten Tyldum (“Imitation Game” was driven more by Cumberbatch and the script so this one somewhat baffled me).

SHOULD WIN: Richard Linklater

WILL WIN: Richard Linklater

Variety

Variety

Best Actor

Pretty much the same story as Best Picture, this award will likely go to one of two nominees. I love Steve Carell to death and his performance in “Foxcatcher” was amazing, but he and Benedict Cumberbatch both should just be happy to have earned their first Oscar nod. Like his “American Sniper” vehicle, Bradley Cooper has a small chance of pulling the upset, but it will come down to Michael Keaton (“Birdman”) and Eddie Redmayne (“Theory of Everything”), and Redmayne has won all the precursor awards needed to imply a victory. The Academy may give Keaton the edge because he is the older, more well-known actor; however Redmayne’s role was so demanding both physically and emotionally, I think he’ll win it.

SHOULD WIN: Steve Carell

WILL WIN: Eddie Redmayne

Variety

Variety

Best Supporting Actor

Well this paragraph could be as short as “it’s going to be J.K Simmons” because it’s going to be J.K Simmons. Most people know him as J. Jonah Jameson in the original Spider-Man trilogy, however he gave a fantastic performance in “Whiplash”, and it is good to see him finally winning awards. Edward Norton was equally amazing in “Birdman”, and he would get my vote, but Simmons has near swept everything else. Ethan Hawke got his 4th nomination, Mark Ruffalo got his second and Robert Duvall somehow got one for “The Judge” (my mouth hit the floor when it was announced). It’ll be Simmons, with 1% chance Norton comes in for the steal.

SHOULD WIN: Edward Norton

WILL WIN: J.K. Simmons

Indiewire

Indiewire

Best Actress

If you thought Best Supporting Actor was a lock, then this is a steel cage. Julianne Moore will win. Like, 100%. Not too many non-critics saw her work in “Still Alice”, but like Simmons she has swept the board. The women who will stand and clap when Moore’s name is called include former Oscar winners Marion Cotillard and Reese Witherspoon, as well as first-timers Felicity Jones and Rosamund Pike.

SHOULD WIN: Julianne Moore

WILL WIN: Julianne Moore

Variety

Variety

Best Supporting Actress

The Oscars aren’t very fun this year. The front runner is Patricia Arquette for her 12-year-long role in “Boyhood”, and deservingly so. Laura Dern earned a nomination, as did Emma Stone, so that’s kind of cool. I loved “The Imitation Game” but have no real idea why Keira Knightley was nominated, and I threw up when Meryl Streep got her obligatory nomination (all she has to do is appear in a movie and the Academy will nominate her). Arquette did the best and most dedicated work, and she deserves the trophy she will likely take home.

SHOULD WIN: Patricia Arquette

WILL WIN: Patricia Arquette

Indiewire

Indiewire

2015 Oscar Nomination Reactions

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Who says the Oscars are boring?

The 87th Academy Award nominations were announced Thursday, and with them came some shocks, both good and bad. Here I’ll give a quick rundown of my thoughts.

Best Picture

I knew my top film from 2014 “Captain America: The Winter Solider” wasn’t going to get any love here (although it did score a Visual Effects nod), buts some of the other films from my Top 10 list did earn the nomination, including the amazing “Birdman” and “Imitation Game”, as well as “Boyhood”. A surprising and welcome addition was “Whiplash”, and a snub I am surprised but not crushed by is “Foxcatcher”. “Selma” earned a nomination for Best Picture and that’s about it, but more on that in a second. “The Grand Budapest Hotel” continues its momentum ride, earning a Best Picture nod on its way to nine total nominations, tied for most with “Birdman”.

"The Imitation Game" Variety

The Imitation Game Variety

Best Director

Alejandro González Iñárritu and Richard Linklater both got their expected nominations for “Birdman” and “Boyhood”, respectively, but the biggest surprise to most people is that “Selma” director Ava DuVernay’s name is not on the ballot. Replacing her is Bennett Miller for “Foxcatcher” (rare to see a director get nominated for a film that is not). I am not saddened or shocked by this move, as I thought Miller handled his real-life subject matter better than DuVernay, but still, some are upset. Morten Tyldum for “The Imitation Game” and Wes Anderson for “The Grand Budapest Hotel” round out the group, the first time either man has scored a Best Director nomination.

Richard Linklater Variety

Richard Linklater Variety

Best Actor

Oh, hello there, Bradley Cooper. Cooper is by and far the biggest surprise on this list, as it seemed David Oyelowo was a lock for his portrayal of Martin Luther King, Jr. in “Selma”. I am shocked by the lack of Oyelowo, both because of how great his performance was, and the fact that the Academy loves biopic pieces (Michael Keaton is the only actor in this group who did not portray a real-life person). Also, Steve Carell earned a nomination for his chilling, career-defining role in “Foxcatcher”. Admission: I was freaking out that Carell wasn’t going to get nominated, but now I can say “Michael Scott has an Oscar nomination”, so that’s pretty cool. Jake Gyllenhaal’s name was in discussion for his creepy work in “Nightcrawler”, but I guess one psychopath was enough for the Academy.

Steve Carell Variety

Steve Carell Variety

Best Actress

The probable winner of this category, Julianne Moore, got her nomination for her role as a professor struggling with early onset Alzheimer’s. The women Moore will likely beat out include Marion Cotillard, Felicity Jones, Rosamund Pike and Reese Witherspoon. Of those names, only Cotillard surprises me, as it seemed Jennifer Aniston had a lot of buzz. Golden Globe winner Amy Adams will have to wait another year to get her 6th career nomination.

Julianne Moore Variety

Julianne Moore Variety

Best Supporting Actor

Probably the least surprising category. All five guys were nominated in the category at the Golden Globes, with J.K. Simmons taking home that trophy, and likely come February will have his name read at the Oscars, too. My vote would go to Edward Norton who was mind-blowingly good in “Birdman” as an egocentric actor, but beggars can’t be choosers. The hype-train didn’t stop for 84-year-old Robert Duvall, who scored his 7th nomination for “The Judge”, and to that I say… *shrugs* (it’s an OK movie certainly elevated by him and Downey’s chemistry).

Edward Norton Indiewire

Edward Norton Indiewire

Best Supporting Actress

This one features one of the biggest surprise nominations in Laura Dern. There was little talk about her getting nominated for “Wild”, but apparently the Academy saw her work better than Jessica Chastain’s in “A Most Violent Year” (a film that earned as many nominations as “Dumb and Dumber To”). I love that Emma Stone got nominated, I roll my eyes at Meryl Streep’s obligatory yearly nod, and I continue to applaud Patricia Arquette’s work in “Boyhood”, and she is the clear front-runner.

Patricia Arquette Indiewire

Patricia Arquette Indiewire

Other Notes

“The Lego Movie” not getting a nomination for Best Animated Film is shocking, even though it did get a Best Song for “Everything is Awesome”. Many people are up-in-arms about “Selma” only getting two nominations (Picture and Song) and to that I only say that in my personal opinion, everything in every category that was nominated over it was more deserving, except Cooper over Oyelowo (Cooper got a Best Picture nod, too,a for “Sniper” so it really seemed fair to give Oyelowo the Actor slot). I didn’t love “The Grand Budapest Hotel” but after it won Best Comedy at the Globes I knew a big day at the Oscars was inevitable (again, NINE nominations!). I’m so glad Tom Cross got nominated for his amazing editing job in “Whiplash”, I’m thrilled and astonished “Transformers: Let’s Blow Up the World Again” didn’t get a single visual and sound nomination, and I’m happy to see “Whiplash” and “Nightcrawler” get Screenplay nods, even if “Whiplash” did steal “Gone Girl”’s Adapted slot.

"The Lego Movie" Variety

“The Lego Movie” Variety

Neil Patrick Harris will host the 87th Annual Academy Awards on Sunday, February 22, 2015 on ABC.

Take the March with Oyelowo in ‘Selma’

Selma_posterSelma? I hardly knew ya!

“Selma” stars David Oyelowo as Martin Luther King Jr. as he and other civil rights leaders head the 1965 march from Selma to Montgomery in an attempt to get equal voting rights for African Americans. Oprah, Common and Tom Wilkinson also star as Ava DuVernay directs.

David Oyelowo, aside from being “that guy with the confusing last name” (it’s pronounced “oh-yellow-oh”, for future reference) has been in many films in supporting roles but has never been known as a leading man. He appeared in “The Help” and “Rise of the Planet of the Apes”, and then ironically was in 2013’s “The Butler” where is character interacted with Martin Luther King, but “Selma” marks the first time he has had to carry all the weight, and he proves that he is the one of the better actors in Hollywood.

“Selma” is as solid as it is because of Oyelowo’s gripping portrayal of MLK Jr. He looks like King, rocking the slow southern accent and signature mustache, but he also shows the emotional toll that King’s life had on him. Whether it be holding back tears talking to the relatives of a deceased or the problems with his wife on the home front, Oyelowo needed to evoke multiple emotions for the role and he nails it.

The rest of the supporting cast all do solid work as well, particularly Tom Wilkinson as Lyndon B. Johnson and Henry G. Sanders as an elderly protestor. Wilkinson portrays the frustration LBJ had when trying to balance racial equality and the War on Poverty, while Sanders shares probably “Selma”’s most tender and human scene with Oyelowo when they discuss the loss of a protestor.

DuVernay’s direction for the most part is capable, however there are times that she chooses to play it safe and opt for the standard biopic path. There is one scene where King is in the car with a protestor and the young man starts to tell King about a speech of his he attended that motivated him to become part of the movement. As he continues to talk and starts to fight back tears, the score picks up, just to make sure you know that the scene is meant to be emotional.

Variety

Variety

The riot and police brutality scenes are pretty violent and sometimes hard to watch, but that’s the point. It is mindboggling to think that this type of thing happened in our country at all, much less only 50 years ago, but “Selma” reminds us that unjust brutality was a hardship that both whites and blacks who fought for equal rights did indeed face.

My only problem with the scenes of protests is that every one of them featured people getting tackled in slow motion, with the high-pitched screeching sounds in the background and close-ups of people getting tackled to the ground in first person view. This didn’t work for me, not just because it was standard dramatic riot shots, but because there are other shots in the movie that are creative and work well, such as showing the size of the marches from sweeping aerial shots.

“Selma” isn’t telling a little-known tale of an unsung hero like “The Imitation Game” did, but it features a fantastic performance from David Oyelowo and serves as a powerful reminder for how far we’ve come as a nation, yet how distant we are from achieving the full scope of Martin Luther King Jr’s dream.

Critics Rating: 8/10