The 87th annual Academy Awards are on tonight. After weeks of build-up, here are my predictions in every single race:

BEST PICTURE

• American Sniper
• Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
• Boyhood
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Imitation Game
• Selma
• The Theory of Everything
• Whiplash

As Oscar night approaches Birdman appears to be gaining momentum on Boyhood, but I stand by my original prediction that Richard Linklater’s 12-years-in-the-making family epic will prevail. What I Wish Would Win: Birdman, the most daringly creative film of the year.

ACTOR

• Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

• Bradley Cooper, American Sniper

• Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game

• Michael Keaton, Birdman 

• Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything

Don’t rule out Redmayne’s performance as Stephen Hawking in Everything – in a typical year it would be a lock for this award – but my money’s on Keaton, the veteran actor who salutes and transcends his body of work in Birdman. Who I Wish Would Win: Keaton. He deserves it. 

SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Robert Duvall, The Judge

• Ethan Hawke, Boyhood

• Edward Norton, Birdman 

• Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

• J.K. Simmons, Whiplash

There’s just no contest in this category this year. Simmons has everything going for him – a respected character actor’s resume, a film that stayed top-of-mind with critics from Sundance to Toronto and beyond, and – oh yeah, I almost forgot – the most intense and unforgettable performance of the year, as a music teacher whose torturous tactics would seem to be a better fit in Kubrick’s Full Metal Jacket. Who I Wish Would Win: Simmons.

ACTRESS

• Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night

• Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything

• Julianne Moore, Still Alice

• Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl

• Reese Witherspoon, Wild

I only had a chance to see Still Alice and Two Days, One Night yesterday, but the buzz around Moore’s performance has been consistently strong ever since Alice premiered in Toronto last fall. Her body of work and the fact that she’s long overdue for an Oscar only enhance her likelihood of winning for this film, a tour de force performance from the most dependably powerful actress of her generation. Cotillard is wonderful in her film, but this is Moore’s to lose. Who I Wish Would Win: In a perfect world I’d find a way to give Witherspoon some recognition for Wild, in which she once and for all closed the book on the perky persona that defined her early career. But Moore was too good, and is too deserving.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Patricia Arquette, Boyhood

• Laura Dern, Wild

• Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game

• Emma Stone, Birdman 

• Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Stone is the only real competition for Arquette this year; this category likes to reward ingénue performers, and Stone is enjoying a remarkable run in her young career right now. But Arquette’s turn in Boyhood is the quintessential supporting role: Over 12 years, her mom to a growing boy (Ellar Coltrane) offers guidance and not-so-silent suffering … only to explode in a final scene that puts her character’s life in perspective. Who I Wish Would Win: Actually, Dern. Her soulful turn as another mom – the matriarch of Cheryl Strayed’s troubled family in Wild – anchored the film and provided the impetus for Strayed’s journey.

ANIMATED FEATURE

• Big Hero 6
• The Boxtrolls
• How to Train Your Dragon 2
• Song of the Sea
• The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

The mysterious omission of The LEGO Movie from this list at once cheapens the category and leaves the race wide open. The Boxtrolls wins points for offbeat adventurousness, but the favorite has to be Disney’s old-school adventure yarn Big Hero 6, which admires super-hero movie trends even while subverting them with honest, earned emotion. It was a lot of fun. Who I Wish Would Win: A write-in campaign for The LEGO Movie would be nice.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• American Sniper
• The Imitation Game 

• Inherent Vice 

• The Theory of Everything 

• Whiplash

Everything has to win something, and this award – honoring the screenplay based on Jane Hawking’s memoir of life with her famed physicist husband – seems the most likely candidate. Who I Wish Would Win: The Theory of Everything. The dialogue in Whiplash is extraordinary, but the Screenplay awards have to consider the story as well, and Whiplash has story problems that I addressed in my review from last fall.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Birdman 

• Boyhood 

• Foxcatcher 

• The Grand Budapest Hotel 

• Nightcrawler

This here is my first total guess. Birdman’s script is remarkable, and Boyhood could well grab this award as part of an overall awards sweep on its way to the big prize. But Linklater’s film was famously understood to be largely improvised over its decade-plus creation, and I’d like to think the Academy would understand that means its screenplay wasn’t the secret of its success. Budapest, meanwhile, would have used its screenplay as the cement foundation upon which every element was built. Wes Anderson’s history of screenplay nominations (without a win, mind you) ought to make him a shoo-in this year. What I Wish Would Win: Would you believe Nightcrawler? Dan Gilroy’s script was powerful stuff – the backbone of a film that should have received many more nominations than this.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

• Birdman
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Ida
• Mr. Turner
• Unbroken

Ida’s lush black-and-white camera work is wonderful, but the 12th time really ought to be the charm for Roger Deakins. Despite being a modern legend in his trade – building a strong resume on films including The Shawshank Redemption, O Brother Where Art Thou? and Skyfall, among many others – he’s never won an Oscar despite 11 previous nominations. And his work in Unbroken (as I discussed here) is easily that film’s most valuable element. What I Wish Would Win: Unbroken. It’s a field of heavy hitters this year, but I’m pulling for Deakins.

COSTUME DESIGN

• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Inherent Vice
• Into the Woods 

• Maleficent
• Mr. Turner

It’s not uncommon for Oscar to default to period films for this category, which would seem to give Mr. Turner its best shot at an award. But I expect Budapest, with its absolutely comprehensive array of color, texture and style, to take the prize. These clothes really helped make the men. What I Wish Would Win: Maleficent’s costumes helped contribute to the look of a film that didn’t get the love it deserved, but I’d still go with The Grand Budapest Hotel. 

DIRECTOR

• Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Birdman 

• Richard Linklater, Boyhood
• Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher 

• Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel 

• Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game

This prediction, ironically, is based on my assumption that Boyhood will win Best Picture. The two films are so evenly matched this year that the time seems ripe for a split decision between the two major categories: I expect Linklater’s total achievement will take the big award, while Iñárritu’s supple, inspired direction will receive the credit it’s so richly due. Who I Wish Would Win: Iñárritu. But then, I think Birdman should take Best Picture, too.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

• CitizenFour
• Finding Vivian Maier
• Last Days in Vietnam
• The Salt of the Earth
• Virunga

I don’t see how CitizenFour – which premieres tomorrow night on HBO, in case you’ve never seen it – can lose in this category. Its topicality (chronicling the saga of NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden) and overall quality make it a shoo-in. And yet … What I Wish Would Win: I really liked Finding Vivian Maier and its skillful unraveling of a clandestine body of work from a photographer who lived 83 years without ever being known for her talent behind the lens. It’s equal parts photography exhibit and detective story.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

• Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
• Joanna
• Our Curse
• The Reaper (La Parka)
• White Earth

There was no escaping mortality and bleakness in the slate of contenders for this category, but Crisis Hotline – about the work done in the nation’s only Veterans Administration crisis hotline phone bank, which just happens to be located here in Canandaigua – is important, thought-provoking and moving. What I Wish Would Win: Crisis Hotline. What, I’m gonna root for someone other than the home team?

FILM EDITING

• American Sniper
• Boyhood
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Imitation Game
• Whiplash

Putting Sniper in this category feels almost like sarcasm, as Clint Eastwood movies are many things, but tightly edited is not one of them. No, Boyhood is the likely winner, a masterful compilation of 12 years of footage that became the story of one boy’s life. What I Wish Would Win: Whiplash, for its electrifying editing work that kept pace with the frenetic drumbeats and anxiety-provoking pacing of that mentor-pupil story.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

• Ida 

• Leviathan 

• Tangerines 

• Timbuktu 

• Wild Tales

Ida’s other nomination in the Cinematography category is the tip-off that it will take the award in this category; being the most lauded foreign film of the year doesn’t hurt. (If you haven’t seen it yet, by the way, an $8-a-month Netflix subscription will fix that quick.) What I Wish Would Win: Ida.

MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING

• Foxcatcher
• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• Guardians of the Galaxy

Who’s to say what happened to Foxcatcher? A few months ago it was the talk of Hollywood … but then people actually saw it, and were left collectively underwhelmed. Still, Bennett Miller’s film remains a small wonder in a handful of areas, and the transformation of Steve Carell into the nearly unrecognizable John du Pont is extraordinary. What I Wish Would Win: Foxcatcher. I don’t want to give all the credit for Carell’s success in this role to his makeup artist, but I believe the cosmetic metamorphosis likely helped the actor achieve a revelatory performance. It’s a good way to honor a flawed but interesting film.

ORIGINAL SCORE

• The Grand Budapest Hotel 

• The Imitation Game 

• Interstellar 

• Mr. Turner
• The Theory of Everything

Alexandre Desplat is competing against himself in this category – he’s nominated for Budapest and The Imitation Game, in a great example of the diverse artistic potential from this talented auteur. The Theory of Everything remains a strong choice, but I expect Desplat will win for Budapest. What I Wish Will Win: I’m fine with Budapest.

ORIGINAL SONG

• “Everything Is Awesome” from The LEGO Movie

• “Glory” from Selma

• “Grateful” from Beyond the Lights

• “I’m Not Gonna Miss You” from Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me

• “Lost Stars” from Begin Again

There’s a lot of good stuff in this category, and in different years each would be a mortal lock. But the Academy is going to have to recognize The LEGO Movie somehow, and it’s painted itself into a corner with this award. Besides, “Everything is Awesome,” for better or worse, was the “Let it Go” of 2014 – the film-related earworm anthem that no one didn’t recognize. What I Wish Would Win: “Lost Stars.” Begin Again didn’t get anywhere near the love it deserved, and more than any other film in this category, John Carney’s film was all about the music.

PRODUCTION DESIGN

• The Grand Budapest Hotel
• The Imitation Game
• Interstellar
• Into the Woods
• Mr. Turner 

How can Budapest be denied here? The films of Wes Anderson have always depended on astonishingly detailed production designs to establish and maintain their quirky world views, and this latest is the ultimate expression of the marriage between look and theme. What I Wish Would Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel. There’s a layered visual richness here that just can’t be equaled in the other contenders.

ANIMATED SHORT FILM

• The Bigger Picture
• The Dam Keeper
• Feast
• Me and My Moulton
• A Single Life

Nobody knows animation better than Disney, and the studio’s Feast is a flawless little thing – the wordless account of a love story between a dog, his master and the food that brings them together. It should take the award handily. What I Wish Would Win: Me and My Moulton, a Norwegian trifle about three sisters growing up in a kooky family, won me over. It’s the scrappy underdog to Feast’s well-fed pooch.

LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

• Aya
• Boogaloo and Graham
• Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak)
• Parvaneh
• The Phone Call

I’ve been certain for months that this award would go to The Phone Call, which cheated a bit and employed two past Oscar nominees (Sally Hawkins and Jim Broadbent) in a slim but moving story of a crisis call-center phone worker who takes a call from a grieving widower who’s taken too many pills. In the last week, though, my head has been turned by the growing chances of Boogaloo and Graham, a slight but endearing coming-of age saga about two Irish brothers and the baby chickens they come to love. What I Wish Would Win: The Phone Call. Cheating or no, those two A-plus actors delivers remarkable performances; it earned its award.

SOUND EDITING

• American Sniper
• Birdman 
• The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
• Interstellar
• Unbroken

SOUND MIXING

• American Sniper
• Birdman 
• Interstellar
• Unbroken
• Whiplash

These two sound categories have become something of a joke: Most people (myself included) don’t know the difference between “editing” and “mixing,” and the contenders in both categories are usually very, very similar. Interstellar’s sound was one of its most notable ingredients – not always for the better, in my opinion – and if it’s good enough to be nominated in both categories, I expect it’ll win here. American Sniper, however, remains a potential spoiler in both categories. What I Wish Would Win: Seeing Whiplash in the nomination bucket makes me yearn for another win for this powerful film.

VISUAL EFFECTS

• Captain America: The Winter Soldier
• Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
• Guardians of the Galaxy
• Interstellar
• X-Men: Days of Future Past

Until the Academy figures out how to properly recognize the motion-capture performance work of actors like Andy Serkis (who played Gollum in the Lord of the Rings movies and Caesar, the leader of a band of intelligent apes, here), films that masterfully utilize this technology at least should have first right of refusal in this category. X-Men and Guardians showed off some fine eye candy, but Dawn of the Planet of the Apes needs a win here. What I Wish Would Win: Apes, walking away.